Heat-Pacers Preview

So we’re supposed to come off this glamorous, rivalry infused, Miami-New York series and get excited about Indiana?

Indiana?

I know a ton of New York fans, and most of them are jerks. I know one person from Indiana. One! And he’s a pretty nice guy.

Now, Frank Vogel is doing his part to fire up the fans and media. Calling a LeBron a flopper, cracker please. If anyone is a flopper on our team, it is Shane Battier, because the man loves taking charges like I love Chick-Fil-A. Which is a lot. In case you didn’t catch that simile.

I personally feel cheated. I just finished finals, which ate up all my free time. Causing me to miss half of the Knicks series. Now I have two weeks off and I’m supposed to spend my free time watching Danny Granger shoot 30% from the field?

Maaan.

I don’t want to sound overconfident. I would be shocked if the Heat lost this series, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if this series goes to six games.

The Pacers act like a tough defensive team. Physical. Clog the paint. They want to be the Bulls Lite. Like the Bulls without Derrick Rose. Like the team that just lost to the Sixers.

But they’re not really that type of team. You just have to say you’re blue collar if you want to sell tickets in Indiana. Just like you have to have players whose wives have had plastic surgery to connect with the crowd in Miami.

Its just marketing, man.

I mean, the Pacers can crash the boards, but they’re not a pound-the-paint, tough guy team. They like to kick the ball around on the perimeter and shoot threes. And that’s okay, Indiana. Embrace it.

It is no secret that the Heat struggle with guarding the 3 ball. Although, they have improved drastically in the second half of the season in that area. Plus, they did just get done shutting down Steve “The Dentist” Novak. So that’s probably not as much of a weakness as it was. But that doesn’t mean I’m not looking forward to Darren Collison firing off some half court threes.

I don’t really know what to say about this series. I’m just not expecting it to be that interesting. Roy Hibbert’s height will give the Heat some problems down low. I think Bosh, UD, and LeBron can shut down David West. Danny Granger? What happened to Danny Granger? I kind of hope he shoots a lot in this series. He was so inefficient all year that he doesn’t scare me.

I’m just trying to not let my eyes wander to the next round. I’m already picturing Heat-Celtics and the intensity that will ensue. But that is a disrespect to this team that Larry Legend has put together. I apologize Indianans. Indiananans?

To be honest with you, I’m more interested to see the celebrity sightings courtside in Indiana. I mean will Bobby Knight be there? Ron Swanson? I can’t even think of any other Indiana celebrities. La Toya Jackson? Johnny Appleseed?

Either way, I will sit in front of my TV with a Chick Fil A sandwich or a four count of strips and enjoy some playoff basketball. I can only pray that we see a Rick Ross- Larry Bird interaction in the stands. Is that too much to ask?

What are the Dolphins Doing?

I just don’t get it, guys.

Can someone fill me in on the plan?

Can someone let me know what the vision is?

Can someone convince me that Stephen Ross is not turning into a less successful Daniel Snyder?

What are we doing?

Let’s talk about quarterbacks for a minute. The Dolphins seem to be waiting for Joey Marino and just killing time with one year fill ins.

Sure, we missed on Peyton. I was bummed, but I wasn’t shocked. Why would he come to Miami? Our perfect season that happened 40 years ago certainly isn’t a draw. Neither is our unstable leadership. I doubt the “rally” of 14 fans protesting to fire Ireland will reassure future free agents who are thinking of coming here. Our hobbled left tackle and stabbed wide receiver (we will get to that) won’t reel him in either.

Peyton wanted to be with people he knew and liked. People who believed in him and would be there for the rest of his career. He wanted a team that would let him run his offense, and had money to bring in his guys. Miami didn’t have that. The Dolphins are a broken organization. We haven’t won a playoff game in 10 years, we haven’t been relevant since Marino, and we haven’t won a championship in 40 years. This is a franchise that is falling from prestige to laughingstock at an alarming rate. We’re becoming the Raiders. All we offered Manning was leverage for his agent.

Then we whiffed on Flynn. I was surprised about that, but actually like Ireland’s maneuvering. He managed to drive Flynn’s price way down, and if there is one man who should know what Flynn is worth, its Joe Philbin. Ireland refused to overpay for the QB and lost him to Seattle. It happens. However, I think this is more about Philbin’s hubris than Ireland being concerned with value. I might be wrong, but most new coaches who are coming off a lot of success, like Philbin is, tend to overestimate their own abilities. Philbin saw what he did with Favre, Rodgers, and a few games of Flynn and probably thinks he has the Midas touch with quarterbacks. He’s probably wrong, but the Miamian in me wants so dearly for him to be right.

Ross’ most anti-Snyderian move was not pursuing Tebow. A move I obviously disagree with. Yes, I am an evangelical Gator fan, and unashamed Tebow fan, but I think the Jets made a great move in trading for him. Say what you want about him as a quarterback, but he definitely has a useful skill set in the NFL. Tebow greatly improves a team’s running game, and scores touchdowns in the red zone. Dolphins’ fans’ biggest complaint these past three years has been Sparano’s infatuation for field goals in the red zone. Now, he’s finally listened and addressed that problem in his offense by getting 240 pounds of concrete and cyanide to hammer the ball through the goal line. Except now he’s coaching for the Jets.

Then we sign Garrard. We signed a Pro Bowl starter at QB! Superbowl or bust! 19-0!

I just don’t get it. Granted, he’s not AS bad as people are making him out to be, but he is not the answer, especially in the long term. I’ll give this to Garrard, he is an average quarterback, who completes over 60% of his passes. He also takes care of the ball. But c’mon. You’re going to leave the hunt for Peyton Manning holding up David Garrard as your trophy? You can’t help it if the league sees you as a joke.

Its like we tried to sign Jay Z, missed on Tyga, then didn’t go after Drake, and decided to bring Mase out of retirement like it was a big deal.

Can’t nobody hold us down.

Its a bad situation, but its understandable that the quarterback search didn’t go as we had planned it. And I don’t mind Matt Moore. For a six week stretch he was a top ten quarterback, and the Dolphins might have been the best team in football. Then Jake Long got hurt, and Moore floundered under pressure. You can make the playoffs with Matt Moore, but everything has to fall just right. Win the Superbowl with Matt Moore? That’s nearly impossible. But that’s not why I’m so disappointed. That’s not why I feel as hopeless today as I did after the 1-15 season. I just want to know: what exactly is the plan now?

We don’t seem committed to anything. There are really only two ways to go as a team, you can try to win it this year, or you rebuild. A team that is trying to win this year goes after veteran talent to add to their core, thinking they are only a few players away from the championship. The Dolphins are doing this by pursuing Peyton Manning, signing Richard Marshall, going after Mark Anderson, resigning Paul Soliai, and picking up David Garrard.

Rebuilding teams, dump pricey veterans to create cap room and acquire picks to build around their young core for a future title run. The Dolphins are also doing this by trading Brandon Marshall away and cutting Yeremiah Bell.

I don’t have problems with the Dolphins pursuing either plan. We have a good defense and may be a few pieces and a lot of luck from a wild card spot. However, the Dolphins have a lot of holes and do not have many truly elite players. I would understand if we cut our losses and built around the few young, rising stars we have.

Instead, the Dolphins decided to do both. You can’t do both! Its one or the other. You can’t go into rebuilding mode on offense while strengthening your veteran defense. The stripped down offense will keep you from the playoffs and the stout defense will keep you from a high draft pick. You know where that puts you? 8-8. NFL purgatory. Where we have been for 10 years.

The problem goes back to the Dolphins having too many blueprints and no consistency. Ireland still has some of Cam Cameron’s guys on the roster, Parcells’ guys are still under contract, and he is just putting his own guys into place. But this season we added another blueprint. Another leader, with another vision for the team in Joe Philbin. Philbin and Mike Sherman want new guys on offense to fit their scheme, they want to get rid of Sparano’s pieces and bring in their own. Except, Ireland is still on thin ice. Ross’ unwavering commitment to Ireland seems to be wavering some, after the JefFIREland protests and all. So Ireland is trying to rebuild and win at the same time.

That doesn’t work.

I shouldn’t say that so flatly. It works sometimes, but you have to hit on your draft picks. Your rookies have to play very well right out of the gate, and you need to supplement your team with high impact veteran free agents. Sadly, Ireland doesn’t have the best track record in either of those categories. Ireland’s continuous misses on second round picks and constant rejection by prized free agents are evidence of that. For this plan to work, you have to get really lucky. Like the Bengals did last year by hitting on Dalton and A.J. Green in the first round and matching them with a veteran defense for a surprise playoff run. Read that again. OUR BEST HOPE IS BEING THE BENGALS!

I don’t disagree with Ireland’s thought process all the time. He made some smart moves when he was out from under Parcells, and he refuses to commit big money to players who don’t deserve it. He hasn’t killed the cap with a mediocre team, he just can’t bring in the talent to make us better than mediocre. I think he is a smart guy but I think he is just a crappy salesman. So is Stephen Ross. That doesn’t matter much when you are drafting college kids with no options, but it won’t win over Peyton Manning, Jim Harbaugh, or even Ryan Clark.

For the Dolphins that shouldn’t matter. We are not one player away. We are not two players away. Our best isn’t good enough. We don’t need a quarterback for a three year playoff run, we need to build this organization from the ground up. We are just getting the foundation together and people are screaming for us to slap on a coat of paint. We have some young pieces here, but we need a cornerstone, a franchise QB. As much as I would have loved to see number 18 in aqua and orange, we need to find our own guy in the draft. The good news is that the price for first round picks has gone way down. Now it is not such a risky investment. A Jamarcus can’t sink your franchise like he could in the past. So what should we do? Pick a QB in the first round! The last one we picked in the first round was Marino! I don’t think Tannehill is a 1st round pick, but if he is the best QB available, take him. If he doesn’t work, take another QB in the 1st round next year. Stockpile them. Keep picking them until you find one. Because when you find one, you become relevant, and you win. Keep taking QB’s until we find our Matt Stafford, our Cam Newton, or even our Andy Dalton.

I know how quick fans are to call for the GM’s head. But I value consistency so much that I end up defending Ireland. I just don’t want to bring in another blueprint. I tell people to give him a chance to get his own players, lets see the whole puzzle before judging the pieces, trust the vision. Give him a chance to build through the draft. So we miss on the quick fixes, we can still build for the long haul, the right way, with young talent. But its getting harder to do. Normally, I can see a GM’s reason for making a move. I can understand his logic even if I don’t agree with it. Currently, it just looks like Ireland is scrambling. I don’t see his logic in the process and have a hard time discerning the motivation behind his moves.

A real leader will make unpopular decisions if they are the right decisions. He will make those decisions if he has a vision he believes in, and sees the team or organization moving towards the fulfillment of that vision.

But today, I fear that Ireland may be leading us all in the dark.

Meet the New Regime

There’s been a lot of turnover in the Dolphins’ organization this off season. It is always an awkward situation when my favorite team gets a bunch of new people in charge. Especially when these people have no ties to the organization or city and they were just working for a competitor a few months ago. Then the fans, who have been living for this team their whole lives, place what is so dear to them in the hands of these complete strangers who do not have nearly as much invested.

It's like if you were renting a basement apartment your whole life and occasionally the owners would sell the house to new people, but say “Yeah, there’s a guy renting out the basement, he knows all about the house and really loves it, because it’s been his home his whole life.” Then, the new owners, who have no attachment to the house, come in and change out your furniture and tell you how you are supposed to use your rooms because its their house. Now, to get the full sports effect, imagine that your dad had lived in that basement apartment and loved it as well. Maybe his dad did, too.

Well, this analogy is getting creepy, but you get the point. Let’s meet the new strangers living in our house.

Jeff Ireland

Let’s start with a familiar face. Ireland kept his post as GM and basically gained more power over the off season, becoming the football head of the Dolphins and Stephen Ross’ most trusted employee.

I know, everyone loves to bag on Ireland, but he hasn’t done that bad of a job. He just hasn’t found us a quarterback. I think it is only fair to judge Ireland on what he did this past year after Parcells left. Before that, any personnel moves were based on the Tuna’s discretion far more than Ireland’s judgment.

You can’t really judge a draft class for about three years, but the early indications are that the 2011 class was a good crop for Ireland. The first pick, Mike Pouncey, looks like a pillar for the future on the offensive line. Daniel Thomas showed flashes for a few games of becoming an effective back in the NFL. Clyde Gates was an attempt to bring in desperately needed speed. And I think Ireland hit on two of his late picks. Charles Clay is a special athlete at the full back position, and Jimmy Wilson can play corner back. In Wilson’s defense, he probably should have been drafted higher if it wasn’t for that pesky murder charge. What a steal!

Most NFL teams take 6-10 players in a given draft. The rule of thumb is that if you can find three good players, that’s a good draft. Ireland might have grabbed five.

He filled holes in free agency without committing big money to undeserving players. He didn’t give Ryan Clark a big contract at a low impact position. He had the vision to trade for Reggie Bush. Nobody thought that was a good move, but Reggie put up 1,000 yards this season, and made Kim Kardashian regret ever letting him go.

Ireland’s biggest move of the off season probably was NOT trading for Kyle Orton. Half of Miami was clamoring for the Dolphins to give up more than a 1st round pick for Kyle Orton and his wonderful neck beard. Can you imagine if we would have done that? That would have been enough to fire Ireland, for me. We didn’t trade for Orton, he lost his job to Tebow a few weeks later, and found mild interest on the waiver wire. Ireland brought in Matt Moore instead, who played better than anyone thought he would, and was a top 10 quarterback in the NFL for about six weeks this season.

All in all, it was a pretty good off season for Jeff Ireland. I know its easy to make him the punching bag, but let’s give him another year or two before we kick him out, Miami. I’ve already discussed how the Dolphins are trying to piece together multiple blueprints. We need some consistency to find success.

Joe Philbin

Our new, 58 year old, upstairs neighbor. We brought in Ol’ Joe from Green Bay, where he has been the offensive coordinator since 2007. Since then, Green Bay has finished in the top 10 in points and yards. That’s pretty good. While he didn’t call the plays, he did put together the offense during the week. Of course, Joe’s scheme was complemented by a great Brett Favre season and the best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers.

I’m rooting for Joe Philbin. His son just tragically died, and it would be a great story if he won the Superbowl. I just want someone who can stick around for a while. I hope Philbin is the guy.

Philbin is bringing a West Coast offense with him: a passing offense with a high completion rate, and a lot of points. As someone who loves the artistry of the game, as well as winning, this is a welcome addition.

More importantly, Philbin is bringing a connection to many Green Bay free agents. The two most prized are tight end Jermichael Finley and back up quarterback Matt Flynn. Now the word on the street is the Packers are going to franchise tag one of these players, but the Dolphins would be in the running for whichever player they let hit the free agency market.

Aaron Rodgers said Flynn would be a good fit in Miami, and it sounds like Finley LOVES Philbin. The dude gushed over him all Superbowl week. That’s good for us.

My guess is that the Packers slap the franchise tag on Finley and let Flynn go. Flynn already knows Philbin and his system and Miami would be a likely landing spot. I’m weary though. We have been down the promising-back-up-with-a-few-good-games route before. (See A.J. Feeley) But, the good game that Flynn had, wow! He broke nearly every Packers’ single game passing record in the books against a playoff team fighting for a spot. It was impressive. Impressive enough to knock some of the luster off of Aaron Rodgers' stellar season.

Where we went wrong before, betting on a back up quarterback who might have been a product of the system, we have fixed. If we go get Matt Flynn, we don’t have to worry if he is a system quarterback, because we are bringing in the system, too.

Really, I don’t think the head coach matters as much as we think. The players matter. More than that, the quarterback matters. Just look at Jim Caldwell’s glassy stare for proof. That guy went to the Superbowl!

Mike Sherman

Mike Sherman was the head coach at Texas A&M, before that he was the head coach at Green Bay, and originally was Joe Philbin’s boss. Now thanks to the old boys network of coaching, he is our new offensive coordinator.

I mildly like the hire. I’ve liked A&M’s offense the past few seasons, and Sherman has made his quarterbacks look good enough to go pro, but I have been surprised by the team’s lack of overall success.

Hopefully this is the right mix of coaching and responsibility for Sherman. Enough coaching to improve the players, not too much responsibility to cost us late in games with bad time outs and challenges.

Hiring Sherman means the Fins might draft Ryan Tannehill late in the draft. Tannehill was the starting QB for Sherman’s Aggies and would be a late round investment. Some of the Dolphins guys that have looked at him have a surprisingly high opinion of him. He might blossom into something, and since it looks like the Fins will miss out on Luck and RG3, they may have no choice but to take a gamble on a 5th or 6th round QB to develop. He could be a sleeper.

I think that we will keep Matt Moore, bring in Matt Flynn (or maybe Peyton!), and draft Tannehill or another late round QB, and let them all compete in camp. We will spread our money on QBs and hope we strike gold with one of them, and hope none of them do this. If that doesn’t work, maybe next year we will get a 1st round QB.

Kevin Coyle

Who?

Yeah, I had to look him up, too. Let me tell you who Kevin Coyle is. He is a relative unknown in coaching circles. He was most recently the defensive backs coach for the Cincinnati Bengals. Coyle has some coordinating experience in college at places like Maryland, Syracuse, and Holy Cross. That’s about all I know on the guy. I guess its okay. The Bengals had some good corners these past few years.

I am slightly worried that our defense will regress this year, but I think that it is inevitable. I liked Mike Nolan, and think he is a good coach. Our defense has been in the top 10 the past few years he has been around, but he left to take the job in Atlanta.

I think our defense would have regressed with or without Nolan this year. While Nolan is a good coordinator, he benefited from the Dolphins playing a ball control type of offense. This limited possessions for the other team, and kept scores low, making Nolan look great.

With this new passing offense, and hopefully high scoring offense, of Philbin and Sherman, the Fins will let up more points. That’s not a bad thing, that’s just what happens when you score more, and you score quickly. This is the reason the Saints and Patriots always have poorly rated defenses, and the Ravens and Jets have high rated defenses.

The one thing to look at this year is how Cam Wake performs without Mike Nolan. Nolan had a knack for developing pass rushers and played an aggressive defense that I loved. Under Nolan, Wake became a premiere pass rusher in the NFL. Before Miami, Mike Nolan did the same thing with Elvis Dumervil in Denver. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wake’s numbers dipped this year, and somebody in Atlanta posted a lot of sacks.

All in all, it doesn’t look like a bad coaching staff. It’s not like we hired Wannstedt again. (The Bills just promoted him again.)

Only time will tell how this staff fares out. More importantly, we need a quarterback. A franchise quarterback. One we can build around.

While I’m bummed we didn’t get Chip Kelly, I like getting an unknown guy. There is some risk with Philbin, he could be a bust, or he could be the next Bill Walsh. We’ll see.