I feel like a fool.
I bought in. I thought it would be different this time. I believed the press. I believed the hype. I believed that things had changed.
I was wrong.
When the Marlins rebranded, embraced Little Havana, and talked about spending, I was thrilled. They swaggered through the winter meetings, throwing around dollars, carrying notebooks with that flashy new “M” on it, and talking about championships.
The Marlins almost had Albert Pujols! The Marlins!
But it all went terribly wrong. Happiness is tied to expectations, and everybody’s expectations for this team were through the roof. The splashy signings bought the Marlins a Showtime series, and a sold out opening day, but in hindsight they didn’t improve their team a whole lot. Our expectations were off base. To think that a team that missed the playoffs last year could win a World Series just by adding a new short stop, closer, and middle of the rotation starting pitcher is a little premature.
We weren’t wrong to think that we were building something. This city was starting over with baseball and laying the foundation for a winner.
This is where the Marlins screwed up. Ownership expected to double attendance right off the bat. And maybe that wasn’t an outrageous expectation for a new ballpark, but to expect 30,000 people to show up everyday when you realistically had 1,000 people on a good day at the old park, is a lot to ask for over one offseason. Buying Jose Reyes can’t change that many hearts that soon.
What makes me so mad about this team, is that the Marlins brass gave up on the dream in only four months. It takes more to build a winner, build a fanbase, and build a tradition than four months! You need to overspend a little at first, commit to your homegrown players, put out a winning team with a relatively stable line up over a few years to buy some trust and win over some fans.
We’ve been screwed too many times by the Marlins to buy in this much, this soon. You need to put in some work before you expect the results.
But they didn’t. The Marlins threw around some money, paid some players that underperformed, saw a losing team, and an empty ballpark, and knew things had to change.
And that’s fine! So far, these moves don’t look so bad on paper. Anibal was going to leave in free agency, Infante was an average second baseman, and Hanley had been living off a fluky career year while underperforming and oversulking for years. But I don’t think this is it. If we trade a piece like Josh Johnson, or make another move to get rid of young Major League talent for prospects, then its the death toll.
I don’t think the Marlins cut their losses with a few bad players, and opened up some payroll to buy free agents next year. I think this was the Marlins giving up on the dream. Quitting on the city. And resigning to return to the small market business plan once again.
I could be wrong. If these are the only moves they make, and they reinvest the money into the team next year, then they were just trying to get out of some bad contracts and retool the team.
But I don't think that's what's happening. This past week, President of the Marlins, David Samson was on Dan Le Batard's radio show. Dan gave him chance after chance to tell the fans he was putting money back into the team. All Samson would say is that he would "reinvest in winning."
He's not putting the money back in the team.
This management group has put out one of the lowest payrolls in baseball for over a decade, pocketed the money from revenue sharing, and hoarded it. They wouldn't shell out all the millions saved over the years on a big contract or two, and they wouldn't contribute to the new stadium, making Miami pay to have these guys fleece them.
They are slaves to the bottom line. And absolutely WILL NOT lose money on this team. They don't understand that sports isn't a business for the fans. The best long term strategy is to create loyal fans to support the team. You don't do that by crapping on them every year, refusing to risk a profit loss and increase payroll, and putting out a cheap and terrible product every season.
You build a fan base by dipping into all that money you saved to keep players like Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Miguel Cabrera, and Dan Uggla. You keep your fan base happy by keeping your core of good players together and winning baseball games. Maybe you appease the fans a little more by going out and signing players like Jose Reyes, and over bidding to buy a Cuban specimen at center field like Yoenis Cespedes, but without 3 year opt out clauses that fool the fans.
The paradigm has reverted back to form.
The old Marlins are back. Just in a fancy new ballpark.
We will not see another hundred million dollar payroll again.
We will not see the Marlins act like a big market team, and chase big time free agents.
And if they do, who will sign with them? What players will take them seriously? What coveted free agents would give up their future to a team that clearly prioritizes profit margin over winning? If you think that David Wright or Josh Hamilton will come down to Miami for a big contract that I highly doubt the brass will offer, you're crazy. They won't trust this team that has made the playoffs twice. That has had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball for 17 of their 20 years in existence.
Miami won't be able to land any big time free agents any more. They will revert back to acting like a small market club. With a low payroll, while the ownership's pockets get fatter and fatter off of increased revenue.
They may have saved money. But its gone from the team budget. They won't spend it. And if they tried, they couldn't even get a player of Hanley's above average talent for it. Those kind of guys won't come to Miami anymore.
They reeled me in. This could just be a result of a losing season, but I feel like this was the plan all along. I believed them. Miami had the new stadium and a big payroll. I ignored that all the contracts had 3 year opt outs. I thought that was to protect the team from bad investments, but it was really just to pull off the ruse.
While this was probably going to happen either way. I didn't expect it to be this early, but three years down the line, if the ballpark wasn't selling out yet, guys like Jose Reyes would have been released while the team cried that they couldn't afford them anymore.
This team isn't willing to take some lumps, and shell out some of the millions that they have selfishly and miserly stashed away without knowing that they will be guaranteed to turn a profit.
Since that isn't the case, here is what the future will look like for the Marlins. All that money they just shed isn't the end. More money will be shed. More good players will be traded for the racket that is prospects.
The Marlins will not spend big dollars but double down and replace Hanley and his $9 million dollar salary, with two average journeyman with $1 million dollar salaries.
It may not be a bad plan to not spend top dollars on a few players, and instead spread that money for lower paid players throughout the team. It’s just that, in the end, it won’t be two $5 million guys instead of one $10 million guy. It will be two $500k guys.
They will trade Josh Johnson this year or the next for more prospects who will probably not turn into anything. This team is bad at gauging talent in young players and seemingly always loses when we trade Major League talent for minor league potential. We will have the brass that hasn't landed an impact 1st round pick ever, trying to determine which 19 year olds will turn into superstars. I don't have hope.
The whole idea of trading good Major Leaguers for prospects is a crapshoot. The odds are even worse with our guys in charge. Do you know why the Yankees have won 27 World Series? Because they don't trade for minor league prospects. They deal in known quantities and target Major League talent. They trade their prospects who may or not be something, for other teams' young talent already in the bigs that they know can play.
Sure, we don't have the same deep pockets as the Yankees, but we have enough money where we don't have to operate like the Pirates! We can still go after Major League talent. There are only nine guys in a line up! We don't have to spend three hundred million but we can consistently field a playoff team and compete for talent with a hundred million dollars.
It is not fair to write off big spending as a viable way to build the club. The money we spent didn't work this year, but it is short sighted to write off big payrolls after one bad season. The Marlins will. They now have their proof to hold up. To them, spending money doesn't equal winning. But the rest of the league knows that spending money increases your odds of winning. They will say that they tried to spend money in 2012, and it didn't work. So they will return to a low payroll full of young players. And if any of them become stars, the Marlins will not pay to keep them, and trade them for more prospects.
If you want a really pessimistic view of things, read Jeff Passan's article on Yahoo.
It is an endless cycle of rebuilding. We might develop another Hanley or Josh Johnson. He might play his way into a big contract. But the brass won't pay the money. And we will just trade him for prospects and hope one of those prospects turns into the player we just traded.
Winning teams keep assets! They build for longer than a season. They don't cut ties and have a fire sale when the team doesn't play up to its averages. A serious franchise, a well run franchise, would look at this team and see that they are not a play off team this year, but they had managed to put together a winning core. You know what they would do? They would endure one bad season and ADD MORE PIECES NEXT YEAR. Not trade the supposed superstar foundation of the team for low impact prospects. Rome wasn't built in a day, and you can’t buy a World Series in one winter.
There is talent on this team. I still believe in this team. Pay the money, and bring in some talent around Stanton, Reyes, and JJ. If they put some resources again into the team next offseason, the Marlins could be in the hunt next year and for years to come.
Things don't have to be like this. If they keep JJ, reinvest the money they have been saving and somehow convince another star free agent or two to come down, things will be great. We could be in year two of a big market payroll and on our way to establishing the city of Miami as a first class baseball town with a first class baseball franchise.
But they won't.
They will blow it up.
They will try to sell us on "potential."
They will field a team of low paid minor leaguers and rake in the cash.
It will be the same old Marlins.
I think the Marlins need to clean house upstairs, and put the money on the field.
Friday, July 27, 2012
Saturday, June 23, 2012
The Coronation of Miami
This one is special.
I’ve never felt like this before.
I’ve never loved a team so much that was hated by so many.
I wasn’t around in the ‘80s when the Hurricanes were stomping on college football tradition, but this is what it must have felt like.
The triumph of the Miami HEAT was more personal than any other sports triumph in my life. The swirl surrounding this team created a bunker mentality for all of Miami. It became us against the world.
We listened to you, Simmons, Wilbon, Barry, and Bayless. We heard your unfair criticisms. We watched you slide the scale of greatness on LeBron, time and time again. We listened to you tell us that this team was fatally flawed, that we were stupid, and that we didn’t deserve this.
And now we’re holding the trophy.
This was the first time in my life, I didn’t want a team to win for me, I wanted this team to win for LeBron.
It has just been unfair. He has taken all the blame. People took potshots at him for two years because it drove ratings, but in the process, they created a rabid mob of naysayers and basketball trolls and it got personal.
But now LeBron answered all the critics. He did everything you wanted him to do. He kept meeting your standards, and now he deserves your respect. The conversation is changing, but it’s still a work in process. You’ve recognized that he is great. Now he’s going for the greatest.
It’s unfair to call someone mentally weak from so far away. To say that he can’t do it because he’s never done it. To hate him for being great but not already being the greatest ever. To love a rapist for his “killer instinct” on the court and hate an unselfish superstar, who took less money to win, for one prideful television show that raised millions of dollars for the Boys and Girls Club is just asanine. I wanted him to win so that this stigma would be lifted off of him. So that he would get the credit he deserved for his work, and that this good guy would no longer be a joke.
Not only did I want this team to win for LeBron. I wanted a championship for all the other guys I’ve come to love.
Has there ever been a nicer star than Chris Bosh? He is always willing to talk to reporters. He is open and honest about everything. He rises above all the jokes and criticism and still makes those goofy faces. He sacrifices stats and reputation to win. He played the best defense I’ve ever seen him play, in the Finals, and proved his worth to the team when he was hurt.
And Mike Miller! Broken Mike Miller, who I’ve watched and defended for two years. I’ve clamored for patience. We’ve seen him hit those shots before. And even if the amnesty train got out of control, everyone wanted to see him hit those shots again. To see him hit those shots in that moment was special.
If the hate wasn’t ingrained into people. If basketball fans weren’t told to hate Miami, they might grow to love this team the way I do. I love watching Mario Chalmers make an impossibly difficult lay up through traffic, then throw the ball out of bounds and get yelled at by LeBron. I love watching Norris Cole come into a Finals game and take shots with no fear or hesitation while rocking a high top fade. And I love watching him speed up the court when the rest of the team falls into a lull and is looking for a spark.
I’ve loved watching Shane Battier get rewarded for all those effort plays he made throughout the year. The countless shooters whose eyes he covered. The countless charges he took in the paint. All that was rewarded when he caught fire from three in the Finals this year. His smart basketball play and huge vocabulary, how do you not love this guy?
I even enjoyed watching the bench. I’ll remember Ronny Turiaf’s wild sideline dances, Juwan Howard’s veteran tricks, and Terrel Harris’ great rebounding in limited minutes. I feel good that Eddy Curry got a second chance, and a ring. I feel good that James Jones got to win one in his hometown. And I will always be grateful for Joel Anthony’s hard work and defense. My homer bias can even redeem Dexter Pittman and see his elbow as a misplaced display of toughness and solidarity.
I understand that it is easy to hate the HEAT, but you should understand why us fans are so prickly about it. Because its not just about LeBron leaving. If he would have gone to New York, you all would have loved him for taking on the challenge. It’s because he decided to play for my hometown. The underlying theme of this hate is a hatred of Miami. You don’t think very highly of us, and you don’t think we deserve this team. But my civic pride can’t take it.
More than anything, I wanted to watch this team win for my city.
To hate this team, is really to hate my hometown. You don’t think we deserve this, but you’ve never been here. You never met the people in the 400 level, and you don’t really know this city. So you generalize about how we are soul-less, all fame, flash, and sizzle. No substance. We’re fake, plastic. Somewhere you’d want to visit, but wouldn’t want to live.
And in a lot of ways you’re right, but this city has a heart.
That’s why I was surprised that I was most happiest for Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem. I thought I would only care about LeBron winning a ring, changing the narrative, getting the respect he deserved. But Wade and Haslem have become Miami, and the heart of this team. And their victory really felt like Miami’s victory.
Dwyane Wade is our adopted son. He has been our precious gem, his shine largely unnoticed by the world before and after Shaq. I remember watching the HEAT go on a nine game winning streak to close the season and make the playoffs in 2009, and Sportscenter didn’t even mention it. Now Wade has a proper stage for his talent and it’s been immensely rewarding to see the world once again recognize his game. And to see him take on the veteran/older brother/leader role in the locker room was great theater. Even if I know LeBron could have won us the title without that, he might not have done it without Wade. I loved the redemption of getting through #withoutwade, #tradewade, and that 5 point game, to a great all around performance in game 5. A small reminder of vintage Wade and how great he can be. I guess I was so happy for Wade because it looked like he was more happy for LeBron than himself. And that is nothing but endearing.
But I may have been happiest for Haslem. That’s our heart and soul. He is our native son. Born in Miami. A product of Overtown. Came up in Miramar. He is Miami, through and through. Having him on this team is the perfect representation of the city itself. The Big 3 get all the attention, and UD does the dirty work that helps them succeed. He’s a great rebounder and tough as nails. Just like Miami. South Beach gets all the attention. But it is the greater South Florida that supports it.
To me, UD reminds me of the Miami I know and love. No, I didn’t grow up in the hood like he did. But I didn’t grow up in the Miami that you think of when you see it on TV. Downtown Miami is breathtaking. A beautiful city on the water full of beautiful people. But it is the people behind the scenes that make it work. It is the repairman and electricians and clerks that make it all possible. These are the people that surround that beauty, and support it. These are the same people that surround this team, and support it. The celebrities might get courtside seats, and spend the game on their Blackberry, but real Miami sits in the 400 level screaming for this team. My mom is not a model and my dad is not a TV director. No one sold cocaine or opened a nightclub. I grew up in the everglades. My dad is a blue collar worker. I may prop up the glitz of Miami and play up the stereotypes from time to time. But that’s just me being good natured and embracing your labels. Sure Downtown Miami may have been built on cocaine, but the real Miami is like Udonis Haslem. That’s the heart and soul of the fan base that breathes life into this team. They are hard working, regular people, that love their hometown and love their hometown team.
This championship reminded me why I love sports. Because I don’t really love sports as much as I love people.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, I was happy for LeBron, and I was happy for the team.
But most of all, I was happy for Miami.
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Saturday, May 12, 2012
Dolphins Draft Recap
Miami has the Dolphins! The greatest football team! We take the ball from goal to goal! And kick field goals like a dream!
My poor, poor Dolphins. In search of hope. With nothing but a famous running back and Canadian pass rusher to hold onto.
The draft was just what they needed. Something to bring in hope, sell tickets, and raise expectations.
I’ll be honest with you, they reeled me in. This is the Dolphins draft I’ve wanted for 10 years. They got me a quarterback. They spent a high pick on a pass rusher. They drafted a pass catching tight end!
I laughed as I monitored Facebook and Twitter during the draft. Most of my fellow Dolfans were pushing for Ireland to get fired, yet were struggling to hide their excitement with this draft. There were a lot of backhanded compliments and optimistic posts ending with potshots at Ireland to save face.
So is the plight of the Dolphin fan.
Let’s just be honest. This draft is exciting. For the most part we focused on high impact positions. That’s all I care about. Yes, the draft is an unknown venture that is impossible to quantify for several years. But that won’t stop me from trying!
Boom! Draft recap!
1st pick- Ryan Tannehill
Ireland must really like this guy. Or he’s been saying he likes this guy to save face about whiffing on Peyton, RG3, and Luck. Either way, I’m excited. Word was leaked that the Dolphins’ brass thought Tannehill was the best QB prospect they had seen in 10 years. I’m gonna have to call BS on that, but I like the effort. The PR spin is in full effect, but you know what, we will love that coded language if the Dolphins are winning Superbowls while holding everything close to the vest.
Anyways, on to Tannehill himself. As a prospect, I didn’t love him. He played receiver most of his college career. It took him until his senior year to beat out Jerrod Johnson. Ask any Texas A&M fan about that, who has watched Jerrod Johnson fire five yard flare routes into the dirt, and they will tell you that its not a good omen for Tanny. He wasn’t elite in the Big 12. He didn’t win any significant games against top teams. He wasn’t near the leaderboards for any major passing category. But overall I like the pick.
Why?
Oh, I’ll tell you why.
We had to pull the trigger eventually! Ever since Marino retired, all I’ve heard is that this isn’t the year to draft a QB. Next year is a much better crop. Then we get to next year and they say the same bleeping thing. I’m tired of it. Every year we wait on a QB. Sign a retread, or draft a project in a later round. Then they try to sell me on the value. Now anyone who has seen me buy half my wardrobe at Goodwill will tell you that I love value. However, it doesn’t work at QB. Look at all the QB’s in the playoffs last year. Brady is a once an era exception. Brees was the first pick in the second round, and everyone else was a first round pick.
Teams pick quarterbacks in the first round, because first round quarterbacks win. At least more than any other type of quarterback.
I definitely thought we reached for Tannehill. And he may not have been a first round pick if the Dolphins weren’t picking there. If I had to guess, I would lean towards him being a bust. But I don’t care. I’m glad we took a chance. We could have drafted a solid guard to fill out another offensive line spot for a decade. But having an All-Pro guard doesn’t win you big games. Just ask Blindside.
All the talking heads like to make football sound really complicated. And it is an intricate game. But most of the players at most of the positions are pretty equal. And the difference between having an All-Pro guard instead of a journeyman probably isn’t a single win. But the difference between having an All-Pro quarterback instead of a journeyman is probably 6-8 wins. Do you see what I’m saying? Is there a way we can hire an economist to run the Dolphins? He would agree with me. Or she! Sorry ladies.
Quarterback is a high impact position where difference makers don’t become available. You have to draft quarterbacks to get a good one. Rarely does a team let one go. The other positions like that are DE/OLB (whoever rushes the passer), TE (Gronk isn’t going anywhere), CB, WR (name me all the big WR signings that have worked in the past 5 years, go talk to a Seahawks fan), and maybe LT (I think Jake Long is a stud but you can normally find a good tackle late in his career who will still play at a high level). Bottom line, you have to draft and develop your own difference makers. That’s why the Steelers have won so many games in the history of their existence.
The most high impact of all the high impact positions is quarterback. A good QB can cover up a lot of other deficiencies. So if we hit on a good QB, most of our problems are solved. The bulk of the improvement will be done and we can fill in the pieces around him. It is so cliche to call a quarterback the cornerstone of a franchise. But its true. You need a good one to build around, or else you’re just dressing up a Motel 6.
I wasn’t high on Tanny as a prospect. But I like him as a person. After he was drafted, I stalked his and his wife’s Twitter page. They are likable people. This was the first draft where I felt like these guys were normal guys. Not market trained, over saturated, media icons. Tanny’s Twitter felt like a normal person’s Twitter. Not a successful athlete who makes a page and starts interacting with 50,000 fans. Tannehill and his wife sound like average college kids who were tweeting to 300 of their friends about going to dinner and cramming for finals.
I understand that has nothing to do with football. But I will definitely be rooting for Tanny to succeed.
2nd pick- Jonathan Martin
I don’t know anything about this guy. I don’t watch a lot of left coast football, and when I did, my eyes were glued to Andrew Luck and Oregon’s chrome helmets. But I didn’t see Andrew Luck get knocked around a lot, so I guess I gotta give props to this kid. We had a hole with Vernon Carey leaving. A 300 lb donut eating hole on the right side of the line that this kid can fill. Sadly, I don’t know if he will ever have as much swag as Carey.
3rd pick- Oliver Vernon
The Dolphins are picking Hurricanes again? After all the Pro Bowlers left? Oh well.
I liked the Vernon pick as well. Mostly based on my high impact preference of drafting. I like anytime my team picks a pass rusher. He is undersized but very quick. Just like every other UM linebacker since Ray Lewis. But if this guy can move off the edge and bring some pressure, it will be splendid. Boom or bust? I have no idea. But keep picking QB’s and pass rushers, Ireland!
4th pick- Michael Egnew
Ok, some things you don’t know about Craig.
1. I’ve listened to Call Me Maybe more than once in the past 24 hours.
2. I’ve been wearing track pants all week.
3. I’ve been a Michael Egnew fan for years!
I was so hyped about this pick. Egnew can ball. The kid is a freak athlete at tight end. We haven’t had a TE like this since skinny Randy McMichael, before he started drinking a lot and beating his wife.
As much as I hate to admit it, Belichick got ahead of the curve. Remember when I was pushing for us to hire Chud? It was because I loved two tight end sets, and now I think the NFL does, too. The future of the NFL are players like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Large tree trunk shaped monsters that can jump really high and catch touchdowns.
Egnew can be that guy. He is 6’5 252 lbs and ran a 4.6. This guy has the physical tools, and more than that he’s proven. Jimmy Graham was an unknown commodity when he entered the league. Michael Egnew was an ALL AMERICAN!
I almost feel bad for Egnew. My expectations are so high for him, that unless he is the second coming of Shannon Sharpe, I’m going to be disappointed.
But its hope!
Hope!
5th pick- Lamar Miller
I liked the Lamar Miller pick, too. I like how we were aggressive and traded up for a falling prospect. Biased homers down in South Florida had him being a fringe first round pick. While I don’t think he should have been that, he was still great value in the 5th round.
As a Gator fan, I spent many a Saturday rooting against Lamar Miller and watching him burst through holes in the line and chalk up first down after first down. The guy has talent, but is an injury concern.
He could be a non factor or he could be the next Frank Gore. That is the obvious comparison, and I can’t think of a better type of player to take a flyer on.
6th pick- Josh Kannu
Oregon’s primary pass rusher. Oregon didn’t have a great D, but I think that had a lot to do with the pace of their offense as well. So we should cut Kannu some slack. This guy has potential but I’m no expert on him. However, I remember he had a high rating in NCAA Football 12. So that’s a good sign.
7th pick- BJ Cunningham
He broke all the school records at Michigan St. He’s not big for his position (6’1) or extraordinarily fast (4.5), but he produced in college. And what’s left of the Trifecta loves production. Charles Rogers and anyone that Jeff Smoker threw to has turned me off of Michigan St. receivers. Prove me wrong, BJ! Prove me wrong!
8th pick- Kheeston Randall
Big nose tackle from Texas. He is a project and will get limited snaps behind Solai. Meh.
9th pick- Rishard Matthews
Never heard of him. Who cares?
I’ll use this space instead to link you to this hilarious article about Jimmy Clausen’s misadventure to Supercuts.
All in all, I am pumped about this draft. I don’t expect the Dolphins to rise above their purgatory of mediocrity this season, but if Tanny shines, we all shine together. And we finally rolled the dice on a QB. That’s all I can ask. If it doesn’t work out, take another one. Keep taking them until we find a good one. If you load your team up with talent at the high impact positions, and fill in the rest through free agency, that’s how you win consistently. It is through that type of building, that the Dolphins can reclaim our highest franchise win percentage from the Steelers. I’m gunnin’ for you Pittsburgh.
C-Note out.
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