Friday, November 18, 2011

Four Years Later: Why Did the Dolphins Ever Trade Wes Welker?



I miss Wes Welker.

The last time the Dolphins were this bad, Wes Welker was the only bright spot.

Its frustrating to see us with two wins and look across the East Coast to see Wes Welker threaten Jerry Rice's single season receiving record.

That tiny white man can play.

I remember watching Wes Welker play for the Miami Dolphins from 2004-2007 and slowly morph into everyone's favorite player.

The dude did everything. He returned punts, kicks, caught passes, even kicked a few field goals for us.

Everyone was bummed when the Dolphins traded him to the Patriots. He was the only weapon that worked against the Pats. But we all consoled ourselves, told ourselves that Welker was an was a flash in the pan and we won the trade. I remember talking myself into the thinking that the Dolphins could find a bigger, more prototypical wide receiver for the 2nd round pick that New England gave us that would surpass Welker's production.

I was wrong.

When you have a talent like Wes Welker, you hold on to him.

The Patriots gave us their 2nd round pick and 7th round pick that year for Wes.

So, now that we have four years of perspective on the move, what did the Dolphins end up with?

In typical Dolphins fashion, we replaced a dazzling skill player with offensive linemen.

The first cog in that trade was Samson Satele, who was picked with that second rounder. Ol' Cam Cam also picked a guy named Abraham Wright with that 7th round pick, a defensive end I've never heard of, and unless you are Abraham Wright's mom, you've never heard of him either.

This was during Cam Cameron's one year reign of "failing, forward, fast." For some reason, Cam had an obsession with the Pacific islands and loved to draft Samoans and graduates from University of Hawaii.

Samson Satele was a part of that bunch, an undersized center from Hawaii and a two year starter for the Dolphins. He didn't miss a game and proved to be a solid piece of the 2008 "wildcat" team. He was a big part of that offensive line that bullied front sevens and created a potent rushing attack.

But Satele couldn't last under Parcells. Parcells hates exceptions. He has standards for every position and if someone doesn't fit the physical parameters, they are gone. He is known for not drafting exceptions because before you know it, there is a team full of exceptions. Which is a fine system if you find players that fit your expectations and have, you know, talent. But instead he drafts 6'5 wide receivers like Patrick Turner that everyone says has no big play ability and very little potential. You have to love it when your team takes fliers on guys with limited potential.

So Satele was replaced by the bigger Jake Grove, and traded to Oakland for a 6th round pick. Grove signed a big contract but never could match the production of Satele and flamed out after a year with the Dolphins. The offensive line clearly took a step back and the running game suffered as the Dolphins limped to a 7-9 record.

Following the paper trail from Wes Welker, the Dolphins performed the worst magic trick in the world and transformed a 2nd round pick into a 6th round pick.

That 6th round pick became Andrew Gardner, an offensive tackle that has been an occasional spot starter at various points on the line and was soon released. He now plays with the Texans. A far cry from the Pro Bowl receiver we traded away.

That's where the value completely ends.

So lets review that one more time. The Dolphins say, "Hey look at that guy Welker. The fans love him. He does everything well. He provides a spark whenever he touches the ball. The Patriots want him. Stupid Belichick. We can get a better player with that 2nd round pick. A strong player, a center."

Then that center slowly turns into an empty roster spot.

Four years later, the Dolphins have nothing to show for the deal and the Patriots have a future Hall of Fame receiver who might set the record for most receiving yards in a single season.

We essentially gave the Patriots Wes Welker for NOTHING.

But hey, at least we didn't repeatedly try to fix the offensive line with resources from the Welker trade, then fail so badly that we had to take ANOTHER center, in the first round four years later.

Look, I know that you can look at any team's history and find bad trades. I get it, everyone misses occasionally. But to watch the Dolphins make a succession of moves like this, in which every transaction was questioned every step of the way, and the Dolphins consistently receive diminishing value in return, shows why the Dolphins are in the toilet and the Patriots are looking for their fourth Superbowl win this decade.

The reason why the Dolphins magically turn value into trash is because the lack of continuity in the front office. There is so much turnover every year, that new management comes in and ships out established talent to bring in their own guys, even if they don't get full value in return for their moves.

What you end up with is talented players being traded away for cents on the dollar and bits and pieces of several different visions from several different coaches. The Dolphins are made up of patchwork veterans that Saban brought in, terrible players from the Cam Cameron era, hulking overpriced lineman that Parcells drafted, and flashy ragtag players Sparano and Ireland signed in an attempt to save their jobs.

You can't build a winner like that. You can't take the various blueprints of different failed coaches, mash them together and win a Superbowl.

The sad thing is, this will only be more of the same in the coming months.

Sparano will be fired, and a new coach will come in. He will get rid of the few talented guys that Sparano acquired, just to separate himself from the past regime. He will want to put his own mark on the organization and trade away players at a discount to give him the flexibility to bring in players he likes.

Continually developing the players and not reaping the returns on that time investment.

What happens is that the Dolphins keep conceding value until their is nothing left.

They end up with lopsided deals like Wes Welker for nothing.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

We Need the Miami Heat




The horrific stories about Penn State and Wilson Ramos have overshadowed the latest meetings between NBA players and owners.

While this is deservedly so, as Miami sports fan who recently watched the Dolphins take a big step back in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, I can't help but stayed glued to any news regarding the lockout.

I need the NBA.

My starting quarterback is Matt Moore.

I need the Miami Heat in my life.

My baseball team is about to reveal jerseys that look like this.

Its been a while but do you remember what last NBA season felt like?

It was a supercharged sprint of thoroughbreds up to the NBA Finals.

The Heat started 7-8 and everyone counted them out. Then, they went on an amazing winter tear and showed flashes of dominance. They came into the playoffs strong grabbing the two seed.

And the Celtics series! Do you remember the Celtics series? Big, bad, Boston, a team's team. They won with defense and teamwork. They won with chemistry and experience. They won with practice and toughness.

And then Miami's young legs ran roughshod over them in five games.

The media buzz was incredible. Miami fans watched sportswriters jump from team to team every time the Heat advanced in the playoffs. Every series the media said "Sure you beat Boston, but no way you get past Chicago."

Oh, Chicago. Poor poor Derrick Rose. Everyone jumped on their bandwagon in the playoffs. The media used the "standings" argument anytime someone suggested the Heat had a chance. Heat critics would scoff and point to Rose's MVP trophy as if that was the end of the discussion.

It didn't matter. LeBron swarmed him the entire series, leading Rose to admit that he just couldn't overcome LeBron's defense. Almost flat out saying LeBron was better than him.

Do you remember that game five comeback? LeBron and Wade led a furious 4th quarter charge on Dirk-esque one legged three pointers. The people at Pines Ale House almost rioted.

Even the Finals were great. Miami was embracing the villain image. It was good versus evil. I remember watching the Heat alley oop over Dallas throughout the 4th quarter and thinking to myself this could be a sweep.

Granted that was premature. Things mysteriously fell apart. The killer that LeBron had been the past few rounds all but disappeared. It became harder and harder for even a staunch LeBron defender like myself to argue that he wasn't shrinking in the Finals. Miami fans pinned their hopes on knee jerk lineup changes from Erik Spoelstra and hoping that Eddie House could go 30/30 from beyond the arc.

We still don't know what happened. My secondhand sources suggest that the locker room was toxic and maybe LeBron quit on the team. I could see that. The way Wade was going around sticking his chest out talking about how he had "been there before" after game three. Spite isn't an unreasonable reaction.

Man. I miss Wade-LeBron talk. Even after it saturated the media for six months.

I say all of that to point out how great last season was.

Last NBA season contained one of the biggest fan disappointments of my life, (second only to Tebow's last SEC title game versus Alabama) and I still remember it fondly. Imagine what the rest of America thinks.

This season could have been the most popular NBA season in years. It would have featured a retooled, experienced, bitter Miami Heat team out for vengeance and a more experienced Chicago Bulls team with a better Derrick Rose.

We would all be asking questions like: Do the Celtics and Lakers have another year of excellence in them? Can the Thunder make the leap to get to the NBA Finals? Are the Spurs still good enough to make the playoffs? How much money can Mark Cuban actually spend on former all stars? And how many white players can the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers start while still trying to compete in the NBA?

We might never know these answers.

This season was crucial. It would have been our season.

The Heat would have come out angry, avoided the early season adjustment period they went through last year, and been the consistent winner that we saw in December.

Call me crazy, the Heat would have challenged the 72 wins record.

One year of familiarity and almost reaching the championship combined with improvements in LeBron's game, with the possible addition of a center, full seasons from a healthy Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem and the emergence of Mario Chalmers as a professional basketball player would have made this the greatest Heat team ever. With apologies to Earl Barron.

Now, the window on the Heat's dynasty looks like it is closing quickly. Yes, they all signed 6 year contracts but they have 3 year opt outs. Which means we are one bad Kobe-Shaq diva fight from Pat Riley having to blow up the team at the end of this year.

That scares me.

That, and Wade is only getting older and I don't know if he has been developing his outside shot like he should, but regardless he will have to change as a player. His legs don't have that many years left. The lockout has given the players so much time that Wade and LeBron are courting Eddy Curry thinking that he could be an important player on a championship team next season. Eddy Curry!

This was supposed to be the year where the Big 3 were all in their primes, at the peaks of their career, ready to break records and obliterate the league. LeBron was going to win his first ring, the coronation of the King, and Bosh was going to be the first NBA champion from the Paleozoic era. It was going to be great.

Now, David Stern has taken this from me.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

My Thoughts on Suck for Luck




Who is Andrew Luck?



Oh, Andrew Luck.

There hasn't been this much hype about an off season move since the Summer of LeBron. Which worked out pretty well for Miami.

If you have somehow miraculously only watched actual pro football games and not been sucked in to the sports business/free agency/draft hype machine that is ESPN, God bless you. But you might not know who Andrew Luck is.

Let me break it down for you. Andrew Luck is supposedly the best quarterback prospect the NFL has seen since Peyton Manning. The guy is legit. He's been a Heisman contender the past few years, he has an absolutely insane completion percentage of over 70% the past two seasons, and he has a fantastic patchy neck beard.

Mel Kiper Jr. has been foaming at the mouth over this kid since he was a Freshman.

Andrew Luck is a stud. Nearly every team in the NFL wants him at quarterback. He can single handily lead a team back to relevance and he could possibly be the cornerstone of an NFL dynasty.



Will He Be Any Good in the NFL?



I dunno.

Everybody says he will. I've been on the Luck bandwagon since watching a Stanford game late in his Freshman season. He has the most important tool that I look for in a quarterback: accuracy.

I mentioned Luck's completion percentage earlier, the dude can put the ball on a dime. The reason that I value accuracy over any other trait in a QB is because it makes a player a less risky pick. Very few accurate QBs turn into less than serviceable players.

If you take a "rocket arm" "gunslinger" in the draft, who's biggest plus is his throwing power, he might develop into the next Brett Favre, or the next Jamarcus Russell.

Give me accuracy any day over arm strength. An accurate quarterback's ceiling is Drew Brees and his floor is Chad Pennington. You can win in the playoffs with either guy.

I think Luck will be a good to great NFL quarterback and I am not alone on this opinion. However, this week was the first time that I saw some analysts on ESPN criticizing Luck. What were they criticizing? Arm strength. I'm no pro scout but the guy looks like he can make all the throws necessary at the NFL level. As Jerry Jones famously quoted, at this point I think they are just "circumcising mosquitoes."

Ultimately its a crap shoot and we don't know how he will turn out, but Luck is as close to a sure thing as we have seen in a decade.



Where Will Luck End Up?

I think there are two distinct groups for Andrew Luck. Ideal fits, and close fits. I ran through the NFL teams and think 14 of the 32 teams would take Andrew Luck over their starting QB but some would have to think about it more than others. Let's get to the real possibilities.



Ideal Fits:





1. Miami Dolphins



Yes, I'm biased and I want Andrew Luck. However, the truth of the matter is that Miami is the most sensible place for Luck to land, and one of the two teams with the best shot to get the first pick. Getting the first pick is huge for the Dolphins, we don't want to end up with a top 5 pick and have to trade up for Luck. That puts our assets up against other teams' assets and there is no guarantee we would have the firepower to make a deal. If we did make a deal we would have to give up multiple 1st round picks and some Pro Bowl talent. The difference between the first pick and the second pick for the Dolphins is Andrew Luck and a first round receiver next year, or Andrew Luck, no 1st round picks for 3 years, and Cameron Wake or Vontae Davis would probably be gone.

But I digress, Miami is a perfect fit because Henne's contract is expiring and he probably doesn't want to come back to Miami due to the 10 years playoff-less frustration we have laid on his shoulders and none of the other quarterbacks on the team will be heavy on the books next year.

We are 0-7 and an easy win doesn't look like its coming down the line. Don't listen to those snobby players in the locker room, real Dolphins fans are cheering for losses. Big picture fans want to fix the franchise and Luck is our best shot.

And for those fans that don't believe in Luck and listen to the critics talk about his arm strength and wonder if he can make the throws, what else do you want us to do? Who else do we draft? Luck might not be everything he is projected to be, but we have to take a shot on a QB sometime. The change in CBA rules means that rookies sign much more feasible contracts. He wouldn't be as big of a risk as Sam Bradford was. We need to dare to be more than mediocre Miami. We need to take a QB in the first round.

Do you know who was the last quarterback we picked in the first round? Dan Marino.

That worked out pretty well for us.


2. Cleveland Browns



Cleveland was a trendy playoff pick before the season but they have struggled out of the gate. Their much talked about new West Coast offense has not worked with Colt McCoy and company.

They may be in a position to get a high pick but more importantly they look like a prime landing spot for Luck. Their starting quarterback of Colt McCoy looks more like a career back up than a starter at this point. (Another guy with a high floor because of good accuracy.) Plus, he doesn't have a big contract because he wasn't a first round pick.

On a side note, I'm sorry Longhorn fans. It looks like Colt is on the verge of being forgotten. He never won a national championship and he will probably lose his starting job soon. At least he can treasure his Heisman trophy. Oh, wait.


3. Washington Redskins



Look Redskins fans, this isn't going to last. Washington looked competitive at the beginning of the year and is still sniffing first place in the NFC East. Don't let them break your hearts.

Ever since turning from Rex Grossman, who has the confidence of a Pro Bowl QB, to John Beck, the Redskins have been floundering in the standings. Take my advice Redskins fans, the Dolphins drafted John Beck. I've been where you are now. I know how this will end.

You will make a late charge for the number 1 pick.



Close Fits:





4. Seattle Seahawks



Their starting quarterbacks are Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Pete Carroll benches one, sees whats on the field, dies a little inside, and puts in the other quarterback. He is shampooing his quarterback situation! Its just rinse and repeat.

You can only watch so many pick sixes go the opposite direction before you start looking at college QBs.

There is a chance that Pete Carroll drapes himself in the Cardinal and Gold and targets Matt Barkley in the draft. But Carroll's job will probably be on the line and nobody wants to bet their career on a kid that reminds me at all of Matt Leinart.


5. Denver Broncos



Timmy! The forecast hasn't looked good for Tebow since his biggest supporter, Josh McDaniels got fired. Say what you want but I didn't think Elway or Fox were big Tebow fans since they've arrived in Denver. I think the Holy Spirit has to lead Tebow's Broncos to the playoffs for him to keep his starting job next year.

Broncos are a dark horse candidate for Andrew Luck. (See what I did there? Broncos... dark horse... let's move on.)



Wild Card:





Indianapolis Colts



The Colts have been the only team that looks worse than the Dolphins this year. But it all depends on Peyton Manning. If Peyton can recover from neck surgery and return to form next year they could very well be a playoff contender again and their draft pick might be better used on another position.

But if Peyton can't come back, then the Colts are the luckiest franchise of the past two decades. (See? Another pun!) This would be their first losing season since Peyton's rookie year and it is the only draft since Peyton's with a sure fire quarterback prospect. If Peyton doesn't come back and the Colts end up with the first pick they will take Luck and be a contender again for the next 15 years.

It's just not fair.










Word of Warning:





Whoever drafts Andrew Luck, don't set your expectations too high. He probably won't win the Superbowl in his rookie year. He probably won't even be that good. Sure, he's the best prospect since Manning but look at what Peyton Manning did in his rookie year. He threw 28 picks that year. That's a rookie record of failure. That's not good.