Who is Andrew Luck?
Oh, Andrew Luck.
There hasn't been this much hype about an off season move since the Summer of LeBron. Which worked out pretty well for Miami.
If you have somehow miraculously only watched actual pro football games and not been sucked in to the sports business/free agency/draft hype machine that is ESPN, God bless you. But you might not know who Andrew Luck is.
Let me break it down for you. Andrew Luck is supposedly the best quarterback prospect the NFL has seen since Peyton Manning. The guy is legit. He's been a Heisman contender the past few years, he has an absolutely insane completion percentage of over 70% the past two seasons, and he has a fantastic patchy neck beard.
Mel Kiper Jr. has been foaming at the mouth over this kid since he was a Freshman.
Andrew Luck is a stud. Nearly every team in the NFL wants him at quarterback. He can single handily lead a team back to relevance and he could possibly be the cornerstone of an NFL dynasty.
Will He Be Any Good in the NFL?
I dunno.
Everybody says he will. I've been on the Luck bandwagon since watching a Stanford game late in his Freshman season. He has the most important tool that I look for in a quarterback: accuracy.
I mentioned Luck's completion percentage earlier, the dude can put the ball on a dime. The reason that I value accuracy over any other trait in a QB is because it makes a player a less risky pick. Very few accurate QBs turn into less than serviceable players.
If you take a "rocket arm" "gunslinger" in the draft, who's biggest plus is his throwing power, he might develop into the next Brett Favre, or the next Jamarcus Russell.
Give me accuracy any day over arm strength. An accurate quarterback's ceiling is Drew Brees and his floor is Chad Pennington. You can win in the playoffs with either guy.
I think Luck will be a good to great NFL quarterback and I am not alone on this opinion. However, this week was the first time that I saw some analysts on ESPN criticizing Luck. What were they criticizing? Arm strength. I'm no pro scout but the guy looks like he can make all the throws necessary at the NFL level. As Jerry Jones famously quoted, at this point I think they are just "circumcising mosquitoes."
Ultimately its a crap shoot and we don't know how he will turn out, but Luck is as close to a sure thing as we have seen in a decade.
Where Will Luck End Up?
I think there are two distinct groups for Andrew Luck. Ideal fits, and close fits. I ran through the NFL teams and think 14 of the 32 teams would take Andrew Luck over their starting QB but some would have to think about it more than others. Let's get to the real possibilities.
Ideal Fits:
1. Miami Dolphins
Yes, I'm biased and I want Andrew Luck. However, the truth of the matter is that Miami is the most sensible place for Luck to land, and one of the two teams with the best shot to get the first pick. Getting the first pick is huge for the Dolphins, we don't want to end up with a top 5 pick and have to trade up for Luck. That puts our assets up against other teams' assets and there is no guarantee we would have the firepower to make a deal. If we did make a deal we would have to give up multiple 1st round picks and some Pro Bowl talent. The difference between the first pick and the second pick for the Dolphins is Andrew Luck and a first round receiver next year, or Andrew Luck, no 1st round picks for 3 years, and Cameron Wake or Vontae Davis would probably be gone.
But I digress, Miami is a perfect fit because Henne's contract is expiring and he probably doesn't want to come back to Miami due to the 10 years playoff-less frustration we have laid on his shoulders and none of the other quarterbacks on the team will be heavy on the books next year.
We are 0-7 and an easy win doesn't look like its coming down the line. Don't listen to those snobby players in the locker room, real Dolphins fans are cheering for losses. Big picture fans want to fix the franchise and Luck is our best shot.
And for those fans that don't believe in Luck and listen to the critics talk about his arm strength and wonder if he can make the throws, what else do you want us to do? Who else do we draft? Luck might not be everything he is projected to be, but we have to take a shot on a QB sometime. The change in CBA rules means that rookies sign much more feasible contracts. He wouldn't be as big of a risk as Sam Bradford was. We need to dare to be more than mediocre Miami. We need to take a QB in the first round.
Do you know who was the last quarterback we picked in the first round? Dan Marino.
That worked out pretty well for us.
2. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland was a trendy playoff pick before the season but they have struggled out of the gate. Their much talked about new West Coast offense has not worked with Colt McCoy and company.
They may be in a position to get a high pick but more importantly they look like a prime landing spot for Luck. Their starting quarterback of Colt McCoy looks more like a career back up than a starter at this point. (Another guy with a high floor because of good accuracy.) Plus, he doesn't have a big contract because he wasn't a first round pick.
On a side note, I'm sorry Longhorn fans. It looks like Colt is on the verge of being forgotten. He never won a national championship and he will probably lose his starting job soon. At least he can treasure his Heisman trophy. Oh, wait.
3. Washington Redskins
Look Redskins fans, this isn't going to last. Washington looked competitive at the beginning of the year and is still sniffing first place in the NFC East. Don't let them break your hearts.
Ever since turning from Rex Grossman, who has the confidence of a Pro Bowl QB, to John Beck, the Redskins have been floundering in the standings. Take my advice Redskins fans, the Dolphins drafted John Beck. I've been where you are now. I know how this will end.
You will make a late charge for the number 1 pick.
Close Fits:
4. Seattle Seahawks
Their starting quarterbacks are Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Pete Carroll benches one, sees whats on the field, dies a little inside, and puts in the other quarterback. He is shampooing his quarterback situation! Its just rinse and repeat.
You can only watch so many pick sixes go the opposite direction before you start looking at college QBs.
There is a chance that Pete Carroll drapes himself in the Cardinal and Gold and targets Matt Barkley in the draft. But Carroll's job will probably be on the line and nobody wants to bet their career on a kid that reminds me at all of Matt Leinart.
5. Denver Broncos
Timmy! The forecast hasn't looked good for Tebow since his biggest supporter, Josh McDaniels got fired. Say what you want but I didn't think Elway or Fox were big Tebow fans since they've arrived in Denver. I think the Holy Spirit has to lead Tebow's Broncos to the playoffs for him to keep his starting job next year.
Broncos are a dark horse candidate for Andrew Luck. (See what I did there? Broncos... dark horse... let's move on.)
Wild Card:
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been the only team that looks worse than the Dolphins this year. But it all depends on Peyton Manning. If Peyton can recover from neck surgery and return to form next year they could very well be a playoff contender again and their draft pick might be better used on another position.
But if Peyton can't come back, then the Colts are the luckiest franchise of the past two decades. (See? Another pun!) This would be their first losing season since Peyton's rookie year and it is the only draft since Peyton's with a sure fire quarterback prospect. If Peyton doesn't come back and the Colts end up with the first pick they will take Luck and be a contender again for the next 15 years.
It's just not fair.
Word of Warning:
Whoever drafts Andrew Luck, don't set your expectations too high. He probably won't win the Superbowl in his rookie year. He probably won't even be that good. Sure, he's the best prospect since Manning but look at what Peyton Manning did in his rookie year. He threw 28 picks that year. That's a rookie record of failure. That's not good.
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