Dolphins Rebuilding Plan

Tony Sparano is out as Dolphins’ head coach. Before the NBA gets up and running and consumes South Florida and this blog along with it, I need to carve out some time to discuss the recent developments in Davie.

First of all, I’m sad to see Sparano go on a personal level. I loved his ever present sunglasses, his reliance on statistics, the way he chomped on gum as his jaw bulged with the tension of the job, his enthusiasm for field goals, and having a big Italian guy with a mafioso name running the team. It should have worked. He should have ascended to a nickname like “the Godfather,” retired and opened up a successful chain of gourmet pizza shops in Plantation. But it didn’t happen.

Tony is out. You can’t really blame the owner, the team is flawed but talented and starting 0-7 is inexcusable. There needed to be accountability at the top of the organization and a change in leadership. Keeping Jeff Ireland at GM has been a controversial decision and while I think the local media is swinging too far in his defense, the dude hasn’t proven he is more than an average GM, I am alright with him staying another year. Just because that means we don’t have to bring in another blueprint and go through the fiasco of overhauling the roster again.

This team has some talent, and some obvious weak spots. I decided to hash out the keepers on the team from the junk. This handy list will help you in deciding if you should applaud Ireland’s move this off season or fork his lawn.

Let’s start off with the bonafide studs on the team, the elite players that any team would love to have. By my accounts there are only four. That pretty much sums up why the Dolphins have been struggling.

The Studs:

-Jake Long LT: He was the number 1 pick just a few years ago. He has had a down year because he has been hurt, but he is a young Pro Bowler at left tackle and would be valued as a franchise player on the open market. You keep Jake Long, end of story.

-Vontae Davis CB: For a long time I thought Sean Smith would be the better pro between our two young cornerbacks, but Davis has won me over. He has great athleticism, Brett Favre’s endorsement as one of the best young corners in the league and a disturbingly appropriate nickname for a bothersome corner. NFL receivers just can’t get rid of VD.

-Brandon Marshall WR: No one doubts that Brandon Marshall has the talent and physical tools to be the dominant receiver he was in Denver, he just hasn’t had the quarterback while he has been here. My favorite part of the Matt Moore experience has been his lack of fear in feeding Marshall the ball. Moore throws it up for him even if Revis is covering him, and given the chance, Marshall comes down with the football more often than not. This last half of the season has reminded me of Marshall’s elite talent, you can unquestionably win the Superbowl with Marshall as your number one receiver. As long as he doesn’t get stabbed by his wife again, I think he will break some Miami receiving records when we get a QB to pair up with him.

-Cameron Wake OLB: I debated whether or not he should be included in the “studs” list. He had a breakout year and was a Pro Bowler in 2010 but has slowed down this year. My uninformed hypothesis is that he is drawing double teams and freeing up space for Old Man Jason Taylor to work his way up the all time sack leader board. It comes down to the fact that unless you are the Pittsburgh Steelers its hard to find pass rushers. Wake still has a few years left of top shelf production, thus Derek Cameron Wake is a keeper.

Keepers (not elite, but productive role players you can win with, and possible future franchise guys):

-Reggie Bush HB: Reggie made Miami look really smart this past off season. He shut up his critics by staying healthy, running between the tackles, and he is closing in on a 1,000 yard season. Running backs have a short prime, Bush is still damaged goods (due to his injury history and his romance with Kim Kardashian), and this could be a one year abberation, but the Fins got him for cheap and he’s earned the right to be the feature back going into next year.

-Charles Clay FB: Sure he sometimes struggles in pass protection and run blocking, but he is a fullback that catches bombs! He is averaging 16.5 yards per catch. You have to keep a fullback with that unique skill set.

-Mike Pouncey C: He may be on the studs list in a couple of seasons. He is a promising young center. I know for the Dolphins it is commonplace but most teams don’t have first round picks playing on the offensive line, you have to keep an investment like that. It just so happens this investment looks solid.

-Daniel Thomas HB: A ho-hum young running back that has shown flashes of being special. We got him on the low, no reason to cut the chord yet.

-Jared Odrick, Randy Starks, Paul Solai, Kendall Langford DL: Say what you want about Jeff Ireland, but the dude has got an eye for defensive lineman. We have a wealth of talent on that side of the trenches and the 3-4 defense can be successful without elite D lineman. Keep ‘em if you can get them to stay for cheap.

-Karlos Dansby MLB: The self proclaimed best linebacker in the NFL has clearly lost a step this season but he has still played at a high level. We have too much money in him to move him, we might as well enjoy this level of play while it lasts.

-Sean Smith CB: He is a keeper, Miami fans! I know he drops picks and blows assignments from time to time but he is a rare blend of size and speed at cornerback. We need to hold on to him and cross our fingers that he isn’t the next Jason Allen.

-Jimmy Wilson CB: Yeah, I know he allegedly killed a guy but that hasn’t stopped Ray Lewis. He is a rookie with a nose for the ball and just a playmaker. He already had some timely picks and a punt block this season. If he didn’t have that whole murder trial thing, he probably would have been drafted much higher. Jimmy Wilson is a keeper.

Fringe (players on the bubble of the keeper list):

-Davone Bess WR: Bess is a tease. Some weeks he looks like Wes Welker with braids, some weeks he looks like an average possession receiver. Well at least we haven’t given him a big extension before we figured it out. Wait, what? We already did?

-Koa Misi OLB: Also known as Koa “Missing” because he is never around the ball. On a defense where everybody seems to have their moments in the sun, Misi is stuck in the shadows. But he is still very young and quietly racks up tackles. He may turn into something, but I won’t be heartbroken if we go in another direction.

-Yeremiah Bell SS: For a long time he was the heart and soul of this team at safety. He may have one or two more effective years left, but I don’t know if it will be worth his asking price. We shall see.

-Dan Carpenter, Brandon Fields K/P: The way the NFL recycles the same 50 kickers regardless of recent perfomance, I honestly have no idea how they evaluate them. I didn’t know where to put our kickers, so I put them here.


Everyone Else:

Can go. Or stay. I don’t care. Their collective presence won’t largely impact the Dolphins’ Superbowl odds. All apologies to JT 99, thanks for everything, but you’re time is almost up.

Next Step:

As you can see, we have some semblance of a foundation. We are still a few pieces away. I would like to see the Dolphins revamp the right side of their O-line, and draft an athletic, pass catching, tight end, but the crux of the issue is at quarterback. If we can draft and develop an elite passer, I am confident that this team can win a Superbowl no matter who coaches them. (Please! Don’t let it be Brian Schottenheimer!) Can you picture it? I can see RG3 or Matt Barkley throwing the Superbowl winning touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall, then Reggie Bush showing off his beautiful biceps during the post game press conference.

I’m already excited for next season. 16-0 baby!

Marlins Trying to Buy Legitimacy by Following Angels Blueprint

In this Bizarro sports town of Miami, Dolphins fans are complaining about winning, the Heat are signing Eddy Curry, and the Marlins are spending money.

Lots of money.

Like hundreds of millions of dollars kind of money.

This is foreign to the fan base. Many Marlins fans are waking up in the morning looking to see who we signed and wondering if this is what it feels like to be a Yankees fan.

To be fair, this isn’t entirely new. After the 2003 World Series, the Marlins increased the payroll up to $90 million, but after a couple of 83 win seasons, they blew up the roster again.

But this is a new Marlins team. No longer representing the whole state, the Marlins have disbanded all claims north of the 305 and renamed themselves the Miami Marlins.

With this new stadium came new uniforms and the promise of a new business strategy, that they would pay out big time money for top free agents.

A lot of people saw this as a smokescreen to sell season tickets. Skeptics claimed that the Marlins would go out there, put in low ball offers to the top free agents, get rejected, and claim that they tried. They would pocket the revenue and laugh at the sucker fans.

This is far from what happened. At 12:01 AM on the first day of free agency, the Marlins were meeting with Jose Reyes’ and his agent. They placed a long term offer of over $100 million and reeled him in before the winter meetings got into full swing.

They didn’t stop there. After landing Reyes, the Marlins’ brass went all in after Albert Pujols, pushing his offer up to 10 years and some reports say over $275 million. (Other journalists say that figure is unfounded.) However, Pujols declined the offer and decided to sign with the Angels.

Regardless, the team has remade themselves. In a matter of weeks, the fans went from crying that the Marlins don’t spend enough money, to saying that they are spending too much money on dumb contracts.

Sure, the Marlins probably overspent on an aging closer in Heath Bell. And Miami probably overpaid for an above average lefty with no upside in Mark Buehrle.

But it is all part of the plan.

In Major League Baseball, perception is reality.
If you want to be viewed as a contender, a consistent winner, and an attractive place for free agents and season ticket holders, you need to spend.

While the Marlins were shining exceptions the past 15 years, in general, the winners in baseball are the teams with the highest payrolls.

There is a reason that the Yankees made the playoffs 13 seasons in a row by spending on marquee free agents, and the first year they decided to invest in the farm system and rely on young pitching, the streak was snapped.

Spending wins in baseball. Not every time, but most of the time.

The Marlins want to be seen as winners, so they have to be seen as spenders.

The only problem is, it is hard to gain momentum and change that initial perception from mid market team to big city spenders. That is why the Marlins had to overpay Reyes, Bell, and Buerhle to sign on to this new vision. They needed the rest of the league to look around and say, “Wait, this isn’t the same team anymore.”

You have to overspend to get the initial crop of talent into the team. Hopefully, that talent wins you more games, and changes players’ perceptions of your team, thus making it easier to bring in more big free agents in the future and sell more tickets.

The Marlins weren’t just buying a shortstop, they were buying legitimacy. They weren’t just overpaying for an old closer, they were overpaying to change how they are viewed. Miami wasn’t just filling out their rotation with starting pitching, they were trying to become one of the big boys.

Funny enough, the team that beat out the Marlins for two of their top targets, the Angels, have completed this transformation over the past decade.

In many ways, the Marlins are following the same blueprint that the Angels used in the early 2000’s.

In 2002, the Anaheim Angels won the World Series. After the season, Disney sold the team to Arte Moreno. Moreno wanted to make the team a bigger brand and a consistent winner to sell more tickets and generally be successful.

So what did Moreno do?

He changed the team name from Anaheim and claimed greater Los Angeles. He changed the uniforms, colors, and logo. He wanted to make the Angels a brand and settled on one logo (out of ten in use!), and focused on making red the Halos’ trademarked color.

His final step? Increase payroll.

Does any of this sound familiar, Miami?

He went out and pursued big time free agents and trade acquisitions. He landed players such as Vlad Guerrero and Mark Teixeira. Big names with big time talent.

After Moreno made these changes, the Angels became a perennial favorite in the AL West. They won their division five out of the next seven years. And the team had three consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

More importantly than all of that, Moreno changed the perception of the Angels. No one still views the Angels as a joke, or a doorstep. When the Angels have a losing record, it is viewed as a surprise and a bump in the road, not the symptoms of a perennial loser.

Basically he transformed the Angels from losers to winners.

This change in the brand, change in attitude, and change in perception no doubt helped the Angels land land Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this month.

So if you want to see where the Miami Marlins are going, look to the LA Angels. This the foundation that we are pursuing. The Marlins are trying to build a successful franchise pretty much from the ground up using the Angels blueprint. While they had to overpay for talent this month, in general I like the moves.

The Marlins are combining a young, talented, homegrown core, with big time free agents.

They are trying to buy respect.

Now let’s see if it works.

Miami Heat Offseason Preview

Let’s face it, the only Miami team that garners national attention is the Heat. And with the Dolphins stuck in the mud of mediocrity, the Heat may be the only team South Florida cares about right now.

Thankfully, the NBA is back.

As a person who eats and breathes sports, the return of the Heat makes my obsession seem more sane. Nobody but me and Wade Leblanc’s family cares that he was just traded to the Marlins (great move for the Fish by the way), but everybody has an opinion on LeBron James. So for a sports junkie like me, the NBA means more sports conversations instead of actually socializing. Bring it on!

I'm sure it took my sad blog post for David Stern and Billy Hunter to come to their senses. So I will understand if you want to send flowers or cards to the Miami Sports Machine and thank us for the return of the NBA. It really would be the least you could do.

Back to important things, this season is huge for the Heat. It is the return of the most villainous team since the Bad Boy Pistons, and is led by the most polarizing player since Kobe raped that girl in Colorado. What's that? We're all going to keep pretending like that never happened? Okay, I'll go back to hating that guy for his charity event that was a little egotistical.

Anyways, I fully expect the Heat will win the NBA championship this year. They were two wins away last year and this team will be better.

How will they be better?

Simply put, better health and Mickey Arison's deep pockets.

Last offseason, the Heat spent almost all of their money on the LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. The rest of it went to Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. Miami was banking on a rotation of at least five championship caliber players, and hoping they would get lucky on three more. Most teams use a heavy rotation of eight players.

What they ended up with was three and a half.

Haslem missed the entire regular season, Mike Miller was never Mike Miller, but surprisingly, Mario Chalmers turned into a real NBA player near the end of the season.

That shows you how talented LeBron and Wade actually are. And to some extent, Bosh.

This year is already a lot different from last year. So far everyone is healthy (edit: almost everyone). While that can change quickly (it did) it is already an improvement over last year when the Heat started the preseason without Wade, UD, and Miller.

Haslem has looked strong since his return in the playoffs last year and while he is getting older, he has been durable throughout the majority of his career. I tend to view last season’s injury as more of an aberration than a sign of decline. As an added bonus, UD also caught up with the rest of America and became the last black guy in the country to cut his cornrows. He narrowly beat out Trey Songz. That's got to count for something.

Probably the biggest reason I believe in the Heat this year is because of Mike Miller. I wrote this column when he was still healthy, but now it appears he has a hernia injury and will miss two months. That's what I get for proof reading.

Regardless, many of my points still apply. He played last year with two busted thumbs. That is hard, especially for a guy who's meal ticket is dropping bombs from beyond the arc. Everybody says Miller's injury takes a full year to recover from and all of the other players were amazed he was playing through that injury. Throughout his career, Miller has been one of the top shooters in the NBA. He has consistently had streaks where he would shoot over 50% from three point territory. To put that in perspective, someone who shoots 40% from three is considered a sharpshooter. Miller is a career 48% three point shooter. Then, last year Miller gets hurt and starts missing open threes. Now the media assumes that he lost it.

So, I can either think last year proved Miller can no longer make a shot he has made since he was in the crib, because he magically lost his touch, or chalk it up to the injury? I'm going with the latter.

I believe that this hernia injury should be an easier recovery for a shooter like Miller, and he will return to form this season. However, the hernia injury isn’t helping his cause and he is likely to get amnestied. Man, it will be fun watching Mike Miller drop 30 points on us in the second round of the playoffs next year, when he is healthy and starting for the Bulls.

The other reason for my confidence is money. The new collective bargaining agreement ended up being more favorable to the Miami Heat. It looks like the new CBA will keep the soft salary cap and mid level exception.

Let me translate the nerd talk for you. The NBA gives each team a certain amount of money to spend on players (or poker games if you're the Maloof brothers) and caps it. A team can go over the cap to resign their own players and each team over the cap is given a mid level exception worth about five million dollars to improve their teams (most teams instead waste this on overpaying role players or Shaquille O’Neal). Teams can also go over the cap to fill out their rosters with guys willing to take the league's minimum salary. This group normally consists of veterans willing to take a pay cut in an attempt to win a ring before retirement. Teams can go as far over the cap as they are willing to pay. Teams over the cap eventually hit the “luxury tax” which means they have to pay $2-4 to the league for every dollar they pay over the cap in salary.

Let me lay out the slightly delusional but absolutely perfect way for this to go for the Heat. The bottom of the rotation guys and Mario Chalmers should free up enough cap space for the Heat to target a starting center like Samuel Dalembert, or ideally, Nene. He is a good young player and would be a perfect fit for the Heat. However, Pat Riley's Armani suits and car salesman charm would have to talk him in to taking a severe pay cut.

After the Heat use up their cap space they will likely target another rotation guy with their mid level exception. Remember, we want eight rotation guys. A center would put us at six. This money would go to a player like Shane Battier. As long as no one inflates his value. Battier would be a good fit, but if the Nets’ crazy Russian billionaire owner decides defensive basketball will excite the Brooklyn fan base and offers Battier a lucrative contract, then the Heat might have to go in another direction. Look for them to target someone like Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince or Grant Hill. I know, sexy pick ups.

After tapping out their cap space and mid level exception, the Heat could then go over the cap to resign Mario Chalmers. This is if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. It is something Mickey Arison would probably be happy to do because he most likely uses 100 dollar bills as post it notes. I think to pay him back, Heat fans should go on a Carnival cruise this summer after the Finals.

It sounds like Chalmers wants to come back. I can only assume this is because he enjoys getting yelled at by LeBron in front of arenas full of thousands of people. Whatever, its not my life choice. Chalmers would probably end up as the starting point guard and fill out the rotation at eight.

Miami could then look to improve the end of the bench,the reserves, the guys who only play a few minutes a game, and don’t make a significant impact on the final score. The Heat would turn to ring chasing veterans who are willing to play for the league minimum.

Miami will be better here as well, due to last year’s success. By reaching the Finals, the Heat are viewed as a safer bet by older players who want to win it all this year. I don’t see anything like the Derek Fisher situation happening again. Last year, we offered Fisher as much money as the Lakers, but he chose to resign with them because he thought they had a better chance to win the championship. This year, the Heat are less of a mystery and an easier sell to these ring hungry vets looking to bet their last year on a contender.

That means that overall, the Heat will be a much better team from players 4-12. Of course the talent drop off from LeBron to a bench player will still be significant, however the disparity won’t be quite as large. Instead of a guy like Jerry Stackhouse filling in, it will be a guy like Baron Davis.

Last year, the gap between the bottom of the roster and top of the roster was enormous. This year, Miami looks to close that gap. Hopefully, the worst four players on the Heat bench will no longer also be the worst four players in the entire league. I’m thinking that this year the worst four players on the bench will be around the bottom 150 players in the league. That’s a distinct upgrade!

To go all economics on you, the lowered marginal value between our starters and bench will be even more influential during this lockout shortened season. Due to the condensed schedule, teams will have to play more back to back games and will have fewer days off in between games in general. This means that the back ups will have to play more than they would in a normal length NBA season. So teams with better benches will have a larger advantage than they did last year. Having depth should generate more wins than it used to. This is good if the Heat follow my blueprint and stockpile talent on their bench.

First you get the money, then you get the mid level exception, then you get the players, then you get the ring. Picking the Heat this year is an easy choice. They should be the prohibitive favorites. They will be healthier, more talented, deeper, and better equipped to deal with injuries.

We were two wins away last year!

TWO!

These upgrades are worth way more than two wins. If you factor in LeBron’s possible hair plugs, then we could compete for the wins record. (By percentage. Friggin' lockout.)

Take it from the Miami Sports Machine. Prepare yourself South Florida, for a number one seed in the East and a brutalizing run through the playoffs. Get ready to watch Skip Bayless’ eyes roll into the back of his head as he collapses into a seizure because the King will be getting his first ring.

Of course all of this is pure speculation with a little guesswork mixed in. I could be completely wrong. If that’s the case, then I will put on my new Wade Leblanc jersey and wait for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training.