Miami Heat Offseason Preview

Let’s face it, the only Miami team that garners national attention is the Heat. And with the Dolphins stuck in the mud of mediocrity, the Heat may be the only team South Florida cares about right now.

Thankfully, the NBA is back.

As a person who eats and breathes sports, the return of the Heat makes my obsession seem more sane. Nobody but me and Wade Leblanc’s family cares that he was just traded to the Marlins (great move for the Fish by the way), but everybody has an opinion on LeBron James. So for a sports junkie like me, the NBA means more sports conversations instead of actually socializing. Bring it on!

I'm sure it took my sad blog post for David Stern and Billy Hunter to come to their senses. So I will understand if you want to send flowers or cards to the Miami Sports Machine and thank us for the return of the NBA. It really would be the least you could do.

Back to important things, this season is huge for the Heat. It is the return of the most villainous team since the Bad Boy Pistons, and is led by the most polarizing player since Kobe raped that girl in Colorado. What's that? We're all going to keep pretending like that never happened? Okay, I'll go back to hating that guy for his charity event that was a little egotistical.

Anyways, I fully expect the Heat will win the NBA championship this year. They were two wins away last year and this team will be better.

How will they be better?

Simply put, better health and Mickey Arison's deep pockets.

Last offseason, the Heat spent almost all of their money on the LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. The rest of it went to Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. Miami was banking on a rotation of at least five championship caliber players, and hoping they would get lucky on three more. Most teams use a heavy rotation of eight players.

What they ended up with was three and a half.

Haslem missed the entire regular season, Mike Miller was never Mike Miller, but surprisingly, Mario Chalmers turned into a real NBA player near the end of the season.

That shows you how talented LeBron and Wade actually are. And to some extent, Bosh.

This year is already a lot different from last year. So far everyone is healthy (edit: almost everyone). While that can change quickly (it did) it is already an improvement over last year when the Heat started the preseason without Wade, UD, and Miller.

Haslem has looked strong since his return in the playoffs last year and while he is getting older, he has been durable throughout the majority of his career. I tend to view last season’s injury as more of an aberration than a sign of decline. As an added bonus, UD also caught up with the rest of America and became the last black guy in the country to cut his cornrows. He narrowly beat out Trey Songz. That's got to count for something.

Probably the biggest reason I believe in the Heat this year is because of Mike Miller. I wrote this column when he was still healthy, but now it appears he has a hernia injury and will miss two months. That's what I get for proof reading.

Regardless, many of my points still apply. He played last year with two busted thumbs. That is hard, especially for a guy who's meal ticket is dropping bombs from beyond the arc. Everybody says Miller's injury takes a full year to recover from and all of the other players were amazed he was playing through that injury. Throughout his career, Miller has been one of the top shooters in the NBA. He has consistently had streaks where he would shoot over 50% from three point territory. To put that in perspective, someone who shoots 40% from three is considered a sharpshooter. Miller is a career 48% three point shooter. Then, last year Miller gets hurt and starts missing open threes. Now the media assumes that he lost it.

So, I can either think last year proved Miller can no longer make a shot he has made since he was in the crib, because he magically lost his touch, or chalk it up to the injury? I'm going with the latter.

I believe that this hernia injury should be an easier recovery for a shooter like Miller, and he will return to form this season. However, the hernia injury isn’t helping his cause and he is likely to get amnestied. Man, it will be fun watching Mike Miller drop 30 points on us in the second round of the playoffs next year, when he is healthy and starting for the Bulls.

The other reason for my confidence is money. The new collective bargaining agreement ended up being more favorable to the Miami Heat. It looks like the new CBA will keep the soft salary cap and mid level exception.

Let me translate the nerd talk for you. The NBA gives each team a certain amount of money to spend on players (or poker games if you're the Maloof brothers) and caps it. A team can go over the cap to resign their own players and each team over the cap is given a mid level exception worth about five million dollars to improve their teams (most teams instead waste this on overpaying role players or Shaquille O’Neal). Teams can also go over the cap to fill out their rosters with guys willing to take the league's minimum salary. This group normally consists of veterans willing to take a pay cut in an attempt to win a ring before retirement. Teams can go as far over the cap as they are willing to pay. Teams over the cap eventually hit the “luxury tax” which means they have to pay $2-4 to the league for every dollar they pay over the cap in salary.

Let me lay out the slightly delusional but absolutely perfect way for this to go for the Heat. The bottom of the rotation guys and Mario Chalmers should free up enough cap space for the Heat to target a starting center like Samuel Dalembert, or ideally, Nene. He is a good young player and would be a perfect fit for the Heat. However, Pat Riley's Armani suits and car salesman charm would have to talk him in to taking a severe pay cut.

After the Heat use up their cap space they will likely target another rotation guy with their mid level exception. Remember, we want eight rotation guys. A center would put us at six. This money would go to a player like Shane Battier. As long as no one inflates his value. Battier would be a good fit, but if the Nets’ crazy Russian billionaire owner decides defensive basketball will excite the Brooklyn fan base and offers Battier a lucrative contract, then the Heat might have to go in another direction. Look for them to target someone like Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince or Grant Hill. I know, sexy pick ups.

After tapping out their cap space and mid level exception, the Heat could then go over the cap to resign Mario Chalmers. This is if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. It is something Mickey Arison would probably be happy to do because he most likely uses 100 dollar bills as post it notes. I think to pay him back, Heat fans should go on a Carnival cruise this summer after the Finals.

It sounds like Chalmers wants to come back. I can only assume this is because he enjoys getting yelled at by LeBron in front of arenas full of thousands of people. Whatever, its not my life choice. Chalmers would probably end up as the starting point guard and fill out the rotation at eight.

Miami could then look to improve the end of the bench,the reserves, the guys who only play a few minutes a game, and don’t make a significant impact on the final score. The Heat would turn to ring chasing veterans who are willing to play for the league minimum.

Miami will be better here as well, due to last year’s success. By reaching the Finals, the Heat are viewed as a safer bet by older players who want to win it all this year. I don’t see anything like the Derek Fisher situation happening again. Last year, we offered Fisher as much money as the Lakers, but he chose to resign with them because he thought they had a better chance to win the championship. This year, the Heat are less of a mystery and an easier sell to these ring hungry vets looking to bet their last year on a contender.

That means that overall, the Heat will be a much better team from players 4-12. Of course the talent drop off from LeBron to a bench player will still be significant, however the disparity won’t be quite as large. Instead of a guy like Jerry Stackhouse filling in, it will be a guy like Baron Davis.

Last year, the gap between the bottom of the roster and top of the roster was enormous. This year, Miami looks to close that gap. Hopefully, the worst four players on the Heat bench will no longer also be the worst four players in the entire league. I’m thinking that this year the worst four players on the bench will be around the bottom 150 players in the league. That’s a distinct upgrade!

To go all economics on you, the lowered marginal value between our starters and bench will be even more influential during this lockout shortened season. Due to the condensed schedule, teams will have to play more back to back games and will have fewer days off in between games in general. This means that the back ups will have to play more than they would in a normal length NBA season. So teams with better benches will have a larger advantage than they did last year. Having depth should generate more wins than it used to. This is good if the Heat follow my blueprint and stockpile talent on their bench.

First you get the money, then you get the mid level exception, then you get the players, then you get the ring. Picking the Heat this year is an easy choice. They should be the prohibitive favorites. They will be healthier, more talented, deeper, and better equipped to deal with injuries.

We were two wins away last year!

TWO!

These upgrades are worth way more than two wins. If you factor in LeBron’s possible hair plugs, then we could compete for the wins record. (By percentage. Friggin' lockout.)

Take it from the Miami Sports Machine. Prepare yourself South Florida, for a number one seed in the East and a brutalizing run through the playoffs. Get ready to watch Skip Bayless’ eyes roll into the back of his head as he collapses into a seizure because the King will be getting his first ring.

Of course all of this is pure speculation with a little guesswork mixed in. I could be completely wrong. If that’s the case, then I will put on my new Wade Leblanc jersey and wait for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training.