Are the Heat Better Without Wade?

No.

That’s the short answer at least. The long answer is still no.

The Heat are 8-1 with Dwyane Wade sitting on the bench. The offense looks faster and more wide open and LeBron James has been an absolute monster.

James averages just over 25 points per game since joining the Heat, when Wade is gone that average jumps up to over 35 points per game. This is an obvious effect because LBJ has to pick up the slack left by Wade’s absence. He has the ball in his hands more and he scores more.

When Wade is out, Bosh becomes the number two scoring option. Bosh has racked up four 30 point games, more than he had all of last year. The role players have also been able to improve their numbers. Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers have each had big games since Wade’s departure.

That’s all great, but the question remains, are the Heat better without Dwyane Wade?

Still no.

The problem with the theory that the Heat are better without Wade are the players that Miami is using to replace him with.

Who’s getting Wade’s minutes?

Normally, Spo starts Battier in Wade’s spot and ups James Jones’ minutes to fill out the rotation. Bottom line, both are good players, but neither of them are Dwyane Wade.

Wade is one of the top five players in the NBA, with all respect to Battier and Jones, they’re not.

The whole idea that the Heat are better without Wade is just ridiculous. Any amount of minutes, any role that Wade plays is an improvement over his replacement. In a vacuum, if you had to pick a player to take 15 shots for you, would you rather Dwyane Wade take those shots, or split them up between Shane Battier and James Jones? Simple. Battier and Jones would probably be graded as a C+ and a C, trying to replace Wade, who is certainly an A+. I don’t know what kind of grades you got in school, but your parents would be happier bringing home an A+ than a C+ and a C. If you combined Battier and Jones, they might be close to what Wade brings to the table, but you can only put one of those players on the court at a time.

Dwyane Wade is a more complete player than either of those guys. Wade is a way better scorer than Battier. Wade is also an elite defender, whereas James Jones is, at best, a matador out there.

We can’t forget that Wade is one of the best finishers in the NBA, and maybe the best shot blocking guard of this era. You can’t replace that with one player. Finishing is crucial with this Miami team since they have a new focus on the fast break game this year.

There is only one way I know how to prove my point here. With dry and nerdy numbers talk. So buckle up, here comes the hammer.

While individual stats will go down when Wade returns, team stats will improve. That is what matters. There is a stat in the NBA that measures how many points a team scores if given 100 possessions, with Wade in the lineup, the Heat average 112 points. With only LeBron in the lineup, that number drops to 104. LeBron’s individual numbers dip, but the team scores more. That’s more important. Giving Wade’s minutes to a sub par defender is also a drop in team defense.

If LeBron wanted to keep putting up numbers like this, he would have stayed in Cleveland. Same goes for Bosh. This is what LeBron did in Cleveland. He was the man and the offense flowed through him alone. If they all stayed on their respective teams, they could keep putting up numbers but none of them would have been two games away from an NBA title. I would argue LeBron wanted to share with Wade, that’s why he came down here.

If the goal of this season was for LeBron to win the MVP, then the Heat would be better off without Dwyane Wade. However, if the Heat’s goal is to win the NBA championship, then clearly the Heat need Wade back.

Who Should be the Dolphins’ Next Head Coach?

I refuse to feed into the media hype and write about the Heat, after two close, overtime losses. The regular season does not matter to this team. The Heat could win the rest of their games this season but if they don’t win the championship, it would be viewed as a waste.

So instead of discussing LeBron’s phantom travel, our discussion will focus on the next head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Jeff Fisher

The leading candidate for some reason unknown to me is Jeff Fisher.

I’m not sure what I’m missing. Every sign points to Fisher being a well respected, average coach for 17 years. Average might be kind. In case you haven’t heard, the man only had six winning seasons in 17 years. You might say to me, “Craig, its hard to win in the NFL. Six winning seasons is an accomplishment that shouldn’t be laughed at.” What I might say back to you is, “You are wrong. Dave Wannstedt had four winning seasons in four and a half years as head coach. I can laugh at whatever I want.”

Fisher’s recent track record includes him drafting a quarterback in the first round, that quarterback playing surprisingly well and leading the team to the playoffs, then Fisher quarrelling with him, benching him, shaking his confidence, and then cutting his Pro Bowl quarterback.

That is not a scenario that I would enjoy watching in Miami.

Jeff Fisher is a relatively big coaching name, he has been around a long time, and has a lot of experience, albeit mediocre experience, but experience nonetheless. I understand the interest.

Stephen Ross wants to bring him in with all the flash and show of his helicopter ride across Davie. He wants to convince us that Fisher is going to come in and fix this team.

I’m not buying it.

Its nothing personal Jeff, but I don’t think we should throw big time money at you just because the coaching market is thin this year. Just because you are the only coach people have heard of, does not make you the right choice for the job.

I would rather have a coach with something to prove, an up and comer of sorts, a coach that’s hungry, and a coach that will score points.

I do not want the Dolphins to be Jeff Fisher’s retirement destination.

So let’s look at my candidates. There are only two that really intrigue me.

Rob Chudzinski

I am going with consensus around the league and coaching history. Chud is a hot commodity right now and supposedly on many wish lists for head coaching jobs currently available.

Chud is the offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had a top 10 offense this year while finishing near the bottom of the league last year. Granted, they brought in Cam Newton as well this off season, so Chud can’t take all the credit, but Chud’s impact can’t simply be dismissed.

Before taking over as offensive coordinator at Carolina, he was the tight ends coach at San Diego. I don’t know if you are familiar with San Diego’s tight end. His name is Antonio Gates, and the kid can ball.

Prior to that, he worked as offensive coordinator with the Browns. I know, I know, not another guy with Cleveland stink on him, but Chud was the coach the year the Browns won 10 games, Derek Anderson threw for 29 touchdowns, and then went to the Pro Bowl. This guy made Derek Anderson a Pro Bowl QB! DEREK ANDERSON! I hope that is on his resume, written just like that.

I’ve long been clamoring for more athletic tight ends in Miami, and I’m confident that Chud would bring in some of those guys. I personally think the two tight end, single back offense will be the next fashionable offense to run in the NFL. Belichick is already ahead of the curve on that one. This is the offense Chud would run, and I think it would work down here. It is also my favorite offense to run in Madden 12, so Chud’s got that going for him, too.

On top of the $8 million dollars we are apparently willing to give to Fisher (according to Kim Bokamper, “trusted” league source) Chud has other reasons to take the job. He has ties to Miami that might convince him to coach down here.

Chud played tight end at the University of Miami in the late ‘80s, the glory days. He won two national championships during his stay. He was also the offensive coordinator at UM for three years, one of them being the hallowed 2001 championship season. That was the loaded UM team with Andre Johnson and Willis McGahee and about 20 other future NFL players that ran through the Big East and won it all.

Chud is hungry, has a lot of potential, a Miami pedigree, and an offensive mind. I would love to see him on the sidelines next year.

Chip Kelly

Kelly is currently the head coach at Oregon football, and also currently happy with his job. So that’s an obstacle.

But Chip Kelly is the man I want in charge of the Dolphins.

Internet rumors have been swirling around this past week that the Miami Dolphins contacted Kelly’s agent about their coaching vacancy.

No reputable source has confirmed that this happened except for Kelly’s agent. However, all agents confirm any rumor about interest in their client. It normally leads to more money, so its hard to trust.

With that aside, the rumors had to start somewhere and even if they are completely unfounded, maybe the noise will get loud enough for Stephen Ross to notice and interview the man.

Chip Kelly has been the head coach for three seasons at Oregon. Since his promotion, the team has gone 34-6, won three Pac-12 titles, gone to a national championship, and put up around 40 points and over 400 yards a game.

That’s what I’m talking about! Bring the chrome helmets too!

There is no human on Earth who watches an Oregon football game and doesn’t drool over their high paced, explosive offense. Not only do they win football games but they are aesthetically pleasing as well. I know, that’s not as important, but it is a nice touch.

Recent struggles from big time college coaches like Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier have left people soured on the prospect of NFL teams hiring college coaches but I think Kelly could succeed.

First off, Saban did a pretty good job his first year here, after a rough start we rallied to 9-7. The defense was solid, and the team was gritty. My theory is that he knew he wanted to leave early on in his second season and go back to college, and things fell apart when his heart wasn’t in it, not because he didn’t have the skill.

The other problem that Saban had was that he stuffed the team with old players that were expensive and aged quickly after he left. He just generally didn’t know how to build a professional football team and he had the final say over player transactions.

This won’t be Chip Kelly’s problem. Stephen Ross and the Dolphins have already showed that they are committed to Jeff Ireland. His post as general manager will be much stronger and he will hold much more say over personnel than Randy Mueller (the old GM) did during Saban’s time. So we won’t have to worry about Kelly messing up the roster building, but we do still have to worry about Ireland screwing up in that department.

Also, the recent success of spread players in the NFL bodes well for college coaches who run the spread. The success of Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, and various other Florida, Oregon, Missouri, and Boise St. skill players makes me think that the NFL is already trending toward hybrid spread offenses. If you look at the Eagles over the past 10 years, and the Patriots before they changed their system, they were practically running the spread in the NFL and having a lot of success with it.

I think Chip Kelly’s spread offense could work in the NFL, and I think Chip Kelly could work in the NFL. He is smart, confident, and the number one candidate on my coaching wish list. Hiring him would bring the buzz and attention that Stephen Ross craves, and he would be worth bringing out the chopper for. Above the noise, if Chip Kelly came in and we moved up in the draft to get a spread QB to run his system (like RG3), it would result in me watching the Dolphins win football games on Sunday while scoring a lot of points. To me, that’s heaven.

Miami Heat Early Impressions

With the passing of Dan Marino’s record, my heart is sad. I was going to write about how much better Marino was than the competition he faced in his era, how he attempted fewer passes, and how only two other QB’s threw for 4,000 yards the year he set the record and now everybody throws for 4,000 yards. As you can see, it would have been whiny, and full of numbers.

So I’ve instead decided to focus on the early season dominance of the Miami Heat. This past holiday week you were probably flying across the country, having dinner with your abuelo, or breaking bread with a bunch of people you call aunt and uncle but aren’t really related to. You know what I did? Watched basketball. So to keep you informed I’m gonna break down the Heat’s season so far. Game by game. Boom!

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks (W 105-94)

I personally think this is how every new season should start in every league, a rematch of the previous championship game. Think of the past few years, we could have started off the NBA seasons with Lakers-Celtics and watched Packers-Steelers on Thursday night football. In some ways, its good that the commissioners don’t listen to me, because it would be hard to sell Cardinals-Rangers this season as must see TV on opening day.

But I digress, I fully expected the Heat to win, and they delivered. They were too much for the over matched Mavs and this completely makes up for the crushing NBA Finals loss we suffered last summer. The Heat ran their “spread” offense that Filipino Jackson picked up when he visited the Oregon football team and the Mavs could only get in front of Wade and LeBron long enough to get whistled for fouls.

I know we say this every year, but I think the Mavs look too old and have lost too much talent. I would be wary of crossing them off the contenders list, but they are starting Vince Carter. That disqualifies them. I’m sorry. It is just a mysterious part of God’s will, no team that has to start sour puss Vince Carter in meaningful playoff games will win the NBA Championship. Case closed.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (W 115-107)

The C’s kept it close but once again, the Heat were just the better team. Miami got out in transition and Boston kept it close by throwing out some zone D. Why does the zone still slow us down? How did this not make the list of things to practice against? If it wasn’t for LeBron’s mysterious disappearance and the Mavs zone defense, we would have won the championship. I’ll give Spo a pass if he indeed spent the off season fixing LeBron’s postseason shrinkage, but I don’t think that’s what he was working on.

Wade and LeBron put up 50 combined points and Norris Cole took over the 4th quarter. Watching that game, it looked like Norris Cole thought he was the best player on the court. Even when Wade and LeBron was out there, it looked like NoNo thought he needed to close that game out. I loved it and hated it at the same time. The early impression is that the Heat got a legitimate rotation guy late in the first round with confidence and skills on a veteran team. That is huge, stealing a rotation guy that late is a big win if it pans out. But I’m also afraid that during the playoffs, NoNo will go all Eric Maynor on us and wave off LeBron and Wade for a game deciding last shot. Oh well, we’ll see.

For the first time in a while it also looked like the Heat were the deeper team in this match up. Which bench would you rather have: Bass, Daniels, and Dooling or Haslem, Battier, and Cole? I would take the Heat’s. How did this happen? What were the Celtics doing this off season? Did they really make the team worse around KG-Pierce-Allen-Rondo and expect to be better this year. How does that make sense?

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats (W 96-95)

The Bobcats got out to an early 11 point lead and it took the whole game for the Heat to catch up. LBJ kept up his stellar play. NoNo kept shooting, but the shots didn’t fall this game. Bosh had a great game and made sure to fill his quota of goofy movements with this post dunk(belly pose.) Does he realize how ridiculous he looks to all of us? Do people refer to him as a dinosaur or Boshtrich in the locker room? See, this is why I need a media pass to interview these guys.

It was extremely tight at the end of the game, and Wade did what he always did. He banked in a last second shot to make everyone forget about the bad game he was having. He then spent the press conference using words like “clutch”, “killer instinct”, and probably “leader.”

Even though the Bobcats played tough and almost stole one from the Heat is it hard for me to understand what this team is trying to do? Who are they building around? I couldn’t even tell who their best player was. It might be Kemba in the future, and for the sake of saying his name, I hope that’s how it turns out... Kemba.

Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (W 103-101)

LeBron put together another great performance, Bosh was solid again, Wade was alright but made up for it with another buzzer beater. Same old same old, lets talk about the T’wolves!

Kevin Love looks like a monster this year. He was doing everything. He might be the best rebounder in the game, which is remarkable because he is under 7’0 tall and can’t jump very high. He is still an amazing outlet passer and can drain 3 point shots, and it looks like he has put together a solid low post game. If he can improve his interior defense he will be a great all around player. I say all of this to let you know that I really like Kevin Love as a player, but he is not elite. All of the talking heads on ESPN are talking about him being a top 10 player in the NBA. In the same breath they say that the T’wolves have a lot of good young talent. Yet, Minny still doesn’t win. Truly elite players in the NBA win games for their teams. You can’t say it is the people around him, because everyone is drooling over the points Beasley can put up, the skill set of Anthony Randolph and the potential of Rubio and Derrick Williams. Even if the team isn’t as good as people think, great players win games on bad teams. Look at Chris Paul the past few years, or Dwight Howard now. Even as I type those names I shudder a little inside. Minny might turn it around this year, and Kevin Love is a special player, but he is not elite. He is not in the same class as those guys yet.

I was happy the Heat pulled this win out, LeBron even said he didn’t want to see the T’wolves later this year. Even he is on the bandwagon! On to the next one...

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats (W 129-90)

Easy blowout. Pretty efficient games for the Big 3. NoNo kept shooting. Bobcats search for a best player continues to confuse me. Kemba put up a solid line of 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal, yet the Bobcats were outscored by 18 points while he was on the court. Maybe MJ should just sell the team.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks (L 92-100)

I didn’t realize that how much I was hoping we would go 66-0 until the Heat lost this game. I might have actually believed we had a shot, and I might be a total homer. I took the loss hard and what made it worse is that T-Mac did us in. T-Mac was hitting everything in the 4th quarter, and what Championship contender hasn’t lost to a washed up superstar, who got hot in the 4th quarter, and is related to the immortal Vince Carter? Oh yeah, every team that played T-Mac in the post season.

The other thing I noticed is Josh Smith. The dude is good. He didn’t put up a lot of points but his athleticism is astounding. If you can notice a person’s athleticism when they are on the court with LeBron James, you know it is elite. The guy was flying around the court and it looked like he could block nearly any shot if he timed it right. I would like him to go to a real contender and see what he can do. You could absolutely win a championship if Josh Smith was your 3rd best player. Just not if you are Atlanta. Sorry.

So why did we lose this one? I refuse to admit that Atlanta is better than us, or that the zone defense shut us down. Atlanta did keep us out of transition and force us into a half court game and we didn’t handle it well. But we were primarily a half court team last season, so I think we will fare better in that situation in the future and eventually we will figure out the zone defense. Right Spo?

In all seriousness, we had a lead late in the game, T-Mac went on a run, we had a chance to get back in it, but the shots weren’t falling, especially for D-Wade. Everyone has games like that. We put up some good shots but they bounced out. It happens. 65-1 is still a possibility.

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers (W 118-83)

I was hearing all of this talk about how good the Pacers were, Bill Simmons predicted they would be the no. 2 seed in the East, I was hyped for this game. But the Heat blew them out, even without Dwyane Wade.

The most interesting to happen was LeBron twisting his ankle on a fast break. Of course he stayed in and nearly played the rest of the game but he is a game time decision tonight. I don’t understand basketball injuries.

We ran all over Indiana. We got out in transition, slammed home some easy buckets, and James Jones hit some open up 3’s. It was an easy win. It is how I expect the Heat to look every game, but that would be terribly boring television.

Also, what happened to Danny Granger. He used to be good? Now he is shooting 30%. Did Delonte West sleep with his mom, too?

Indiana looks like a team of young role players to me. I like Roy Hibbert, but that’s about it.

So there you go. Enjoy my pinings on the Heat, use my opinions of their opponents at parties, claim them as your own. I don’t care, as long as you come back to the Miami Sports Machine for more rants.

I don’t know what will happen tonight if it is just Bosh vs. the Hawks. I predict NoNo puts up 25 shots, Josh Smith makes an extremely impressive play, then promptly gets hurt, and there is the possibility I will get very sad if we lose the prospect of going 65-1.