Thursday, January 26, 2012

Are the Heat Better Without Wade?




No.

That’s the short answer at least. The long answer is still no.

The Heat are 8-1 with Dwyane Wade sitting on the bench. The offense looks faster and more wide open and LeBron James has been an absolute monster.

James averages just over 25 points per game since joining the Heat, when Wade is gone that average jumps up to over 35 points per game. This is an obvious effect because LBJ has to pick up the slack left by Wade’s absence. He has the ball in his hands more and he scores more.

When Wade is out, Bosh becomes the number two scoring option. Bosh has racked up four 30 point games, more than he had all of last year. The role players have also been able to improve their numbers. Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers have each had big games since Wade’s departure.

That’s all great, but the question remains, are the Heat better without Dwyane Wade?

Still no.

The problem with the theory that the Heat are better without Wade are the players that Miami is using to replace him with.

Who’s getting Wade’s minutes?

Normally, Spo starts Battier in Wade’s spot and ups James Jones’ minutes to fill out the rotation. Bottom line, both are good players, but neither of them are Dwyane Wade.

Wade is one of the top five players in the NBA, with all respect to Battier and Jones, they’re not.

The whole idea that the Heat are better without Wade is just ridiculous. Any amount of minutes, any role that Wade plays is an improvement over his replacement. In a vacuum, if you had to pick a player to take 15 shots for you, would you rather Dwyane Wade take those shots, or split them up between Shane Battier and James Jones? Simple. Battier and Jones would probably be graded as a C+ and a C, trying to replace Wade, who is certainly an A+. I don’t know what kind of grades you got in school, but your parents would be happier bringing home an A+ than a C+ and a C. If you combined Battier and Jones, they might be close to what Wade brings to the table, but you can only put one of those players on the court at a time.

Dwyane Wade is a more complete player than either of those guys. Wade is a way better scorer than Battier. Wade is also an elite defender, whereas James Jones is, at best, a matador out there.

We can’t forget that Wade is one of the best finishers in the NBA, and maybe the best shot blocking guard of this era. You can’t replace that with one player. Finishing is crucial with this Miami team since they have a new focus on the fast break game this year.

There is only one way I know how to prove my point here. With dry and nerdy numbers talk. So buckle up, here comes the hammer.

While individual stats will go down when Wade returns, team stats will improve. That is what matters. There is a stat in the NBA that measures how many points a team scores if given 100 possessions, with Wade in the lineup, the Heat average 112 points. With only LeBron in the lineup, that number drops to 104. LeBron’s individual numbers dip, but the team scores more. That’s more important. Giving Wade’s minutes to a sub par defender is also a drop in team defense.

If LeBron wanted to keep putting up numbers like this, he would have stayed in Cleveland. Same goes for Bosh. This is what LeBron did in Cleveland. He was the man and the offense flowed through him alone. If they all stayed on their respective teams, they could keep putting up numbers but none of them would have been two games away from an NBA title. I would argue LeBron wanted to share with Wade, that’s why he came down here.

If the goal of this season was for LeBron to win the MVP, then the Heat would be better off without Dwyane Wade. However, if the Heat’s goal is to win the NBA championship, then clearly the Heat need Wade back.

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