Marlins Should Trade Stanton

                                                                                                                                                                 Ned Dishman/Getty Images

The Miami Marlins are a mess. Many are projecting them to lose 100 games this season. After last year's fire sale, there are holes all over the lineup. The one shining star they have is Giancarlo Stanton. They should get rid of him, too.

The Marlins are obviously not contenders this year. Unless they have the greatest fluke season of all time, they will be out of the division race by June. The moves that the Marlins made last year are water under the bridge. The fans are still outraged, but the owner is not going to sell and the team is not going to get those players back.

The outrage can't get any worse. So, this is the perfect time to trade Stanton. Stanton is an impact player. He is the type of player that a franchise should build around. He is the type of player that teams give hundreds of millions of dollars to. If the Marlins were actually trying to win they would do this. They would give Stanton the biggest extension in the history of baseball. However, the Marlins aren't trying to win, they are trying to make money. They want to build around cheap prospects, and if the team gels into a contender at the right time, then great.

That's why it doesn't make sense for the Marlins to hold on to Stanton. He doesn't fit in with the plan. If the plan is to fill the team with highly regarded prospects every position, then why not use Stanton to fetch a boatload of prospects? This is a team starting Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco. There are still spots available for prospects in the lineup.

Teams that are expecting to make the playoffs this year might be willing to trade their whole farm system for Stanton. The haul from trading Stanton could easily bring in a young player to fill his place in right field, and flesh out the entire outfield or bullpen.

While Marlin fans would hate to see him go, there is no chance that Stanton is resigning with Miami when his contract expires. He was unsure about resigning with the Marlins before they traded the whole team to Canada, and when his contract is up, Stanton is getting on the first plane to California and never coming back.

If the Marlins aren't going anywhere this season, want to fill their team with prospects, and have a disgruntled player on the way out that other teams would pay a premium for, why not trade him? It can't get any worse.

No Excuses for Tannehill

The Miami Dolphins are trying to climb out of mediocrity. Four straight seasons below .500 has left the fan base dull. The Dolphins won the offseason, changed their logo, and generated a little bit of buzz for this year. That won't last unless they win.

This offseason looks to be about acquiring play makers. General manager Jeff Ireland is trying to put the right pieces around second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Ireland went out and brought in Mike Wallace, a dynamic deep threat that Tannehill was missing last year. The team also signed Dustin Keller, an athletic tight end and security blanket for Tannehill.

Fans were clamoring for these moves. These signings appeased the fan base, but also raised the expectations and eliminated the excuses for Tannehill. Last season, Tannehill fluctuated from brilliant to pedestrian. His supporters consistently pointed to the Dolphins' lack of a true number one receiver. They marveled at his ability to move the offense without a deep threat to stretch the field, or a reliable tight end to create space over the middle.

Now those excuses are gone. Miami will be looking for Tannehill to lead this team to the playoffs. While no one would argue that the Dolphins are loaded on offense, they clearly have enough to win a wild card spot. These moves will force people to judge Tannehill based on production instead of potential. Instead of wondering what he could do with talent around him, fans will have the answers laid out in front of them. Tannehill will be held accountable to improve on his average 76.1 quarterback rating and his mediocre 6.81 yards per pass attempt, and he won't be bailed out by the constant hope of potential.

Miami is expecting the playoffs. The city is expecting Tannehill to deliver. Fans are expecting him to improve. They hope these signings will push them into the playoffs. If nothing else, these moves will now allow the city and organization to take an accurate assessment of their quarterback.

Dolphins Mortgaging Future to Win Now

There is a lot of debate as to what makes an NFL team great. Some say you need an elite quarterback. Others say you need a great coach. The old school thinks that physical defense and hard running can still get your team a ring.

If you think back to all the great dynasties of the NFL, they succeeded in a myriad of different ways. Don Shula's Dolphins pummeled opponents with big running backs and a stiff defense. Bill Walsh's 49ers spread the field and threw over the competition. Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys won with balance.

There's not a secret schematic formula to win a Superbowl. There is only one thing that every NFL dynasty has in common, stability. Every great organization was either built around one coach, or one group of players. These teams slowly added the right pieces around their talent over several years, following a singular blueprint, and producing consistent success.

Right now, the Miami Dolphins have a pile of blueprints all drawn on top of each other. The reason why the Dolphins haven't been successful in over a decade is because they keep changing the plan every few years.

When Dan Marino retired, the Dolphins and Dave Wannstedt tried to build a team around Ricky Williams and a stellar defense. It almost worked, getting them to the playoffs every year, but never advancing very far.

When the team introduced Nick Saban, he brought in a bunch of veterans at the end of their primes, for big money. By the time he bolted for Alabama, the team was full of washed up and over priced albatrosses. The once vaunted Miami defense was hardly recognizable.

Cam Cameron was going to “fail forward fast” with his mix of spread and vertical passing concepts. Unfortunately, all Cameron did was fail fast and was gone within a year. The only relic from his era that's still around is Paul Soliai.

Bill Parcells and his unholy triumvirate of Jeff Ireland and Tony Sparano laid another blueprint on the stack and tore up the previous foundation. Parcells traded away long time linebacker Jason Taylor, and drafted tackle Jake Long. Parcells wanted to smash the ball down the middle, and win with defense.

After a few years of middling success, only Ireland is left. The most recent coach to be brought to the slaughter is Joe Philbin. Philbin runs a west coast offense! He's trying to sling the ball around with players that Parcells brought in to run the ball between the tackles!

This lack of a singular vision for the team, leads Miami to turn over its roster every few years. Any time a team lays a new foundation, they take a hit in talent. The best players for the old system leave town, and the new regime needs a few drafts to bring in talent to fit the new scheme.

That's why consistency is so important. If a team has an unchanging set of attributes that they value at each position, they can develop stars in their system and build depth through multiple drafts and free agency periods. If a team changes their values every offseason, they end up with a bunch of mismatched puzzle pieces that they try to plug into a new system. In other words, a mess. That's the Miami Dolphins.

The teams that do it the best, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots understand this concept. The Steelers have only had three coaches since 1969! Three! The Dolphins have gone through three coaches in three years before. The New England Patriots have been hand crafted by Bill Belichick. Every piece has been thoroughly inspected to see if it fits, before he inserts it into the starting line up.

I do not think Jeff Ireland is a great general manager, or even a good one. However, the Dolphins have stumbled into some consistency with him. His recent actions lead me to realize that even he knows this is his last chance to get things right. That's why he went out and won the off season. Ireland threw money at Mike Wallace and severely overpaid for some low impact linebackers and an above average tight end.

Have you looked at the money on those deals? Ireland back loaded them. The big money doesn't kick in until next year. Mike Wallace signed a $60 million deal. His salary this year is $1 million. Next year, it's $15 million. Ireland set up all the contracts this way, so he could bring in a bunch of talent under the cap this year and worry about the problems next year. This is irrational. It will leave the Dolphins strapped for cash for the next few off seasons.

This is a symptom of the lack of consistency in the Miami Dolphins organization. The brass has to constantly mortgage the future in a desperate attempt to keep his job. This leaves a mess for the next guy to clean up, and by the time he has finally cleaned it up, he gets fired.

I'm not arguing that Jeff Ireland is the man that we need to build around, but the Dolphins need to identify a guy they believe in and hand him the keys to the organization. They need to find someone they trust and let him build a team, through multiple drafts, and multiple off seasons. Miami needs one vision and one system that they can follow and build a consistent winner. Overhauling the team every few years is not the way to do it. If the Dolphins want to win a Superbowl, they need to create some stability.

Is Tannehill the Answer?

The NFL season is over. The Dolphins stunningly missed the playoffs, again. Indifference runs rampant over the city of Miami. But one question needs to be answered, is Ryan Tannehill the next Marino or the next Cleo Lemon? That's the big question, right? That's what this whole season has really been about. This season wasn't about making the playoffs. It wasn't really about rebuilding either. It was a 16 week audition to see if Ryan Tannehill is a franchise quarterback.

The Dolphins looked competitive all year, but not spectacular, and from the basic stats, the same could be said for Tannehill. Here's his line:

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
2012	Miami Dolphins	16	484	282	58.3	30.2	3,294	6.8	205.9	12	2.5	13	2.7	80T	40	3	35	234	76.1

Pretty good. I mean, we are currently in an era where the top quarterbacks are throwing for 5,000 yards, everybody is throwing for 4,000 yards and our quarterback barely threw for 3,000 yards. But hey, at least he didn't do this. The advanced stats are not as friendly. Here is where he stacks up according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats:

DYAR: 25^th

DVOA: 25^th

QBR: 19^th

Not so great. Bottom third of the league. Ah, the Dolphins, nothing if not consistently underwhelming. Yes, he's only a rookie but how far does that excuse go? We've been through this with Henne. He showed flashes and then had some duds. Henne observers broke into two camps, one wanted to oust him in his second season, and the other preached patience. I was even leaning on the patience side, saying that he needed more time, that stability at quarterback would lead to winning, and I didn't want to rebuild again. While all of that is true, none of those statements are endorsements of his talent. It was obvious he wasn't going to be the guy, and I never realized it. I can't say many different things about Tannehill. Just for fun, here are the stats for Henne's first year:

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate

2009

Miami Dolphins

14

451

274

60.8

32.2

2,878

6.4

205.6

12

2.7

14

3.1

67

23

4

26

176

75.2

Yikes...

That is pretty similar. However, Henne had Brandon Marshall at receiver, and Tannehill is throwing to this guy. Hartline and Bess haven't exactly been creating a lot of separation on the field. I mean even Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend was better at keeping her distance from defensive players. Sorry.

But the lack of a number one receiver shouldn't be overlooked. Football is an inexact science, and we can't really tell when a receiver makes a quarterback look good or when a quarterback makes a receiver look good. Except for the case of Brandon Stokley and Peyton Manning. If it wasn't for Peyton Manning, Brandon Stokley would clearly be a sandwich artist at some Subway in Virginia by now.

The big number that I look at in judging quarterbacks is completion percentage. I value accuracy above every other trait in a quarterback. I always like rolling the dice on an accurate passer. You can keep the big-armed QB and hope he turns into the next Brett Favre or John Elway but you will probably end up with another Jamarcus. I will draft the accurate quarterback and hope he turns into Aaron Rodgers, but will settle for Rich Gannon.

That being said, Tannehill's completion percentage isn't bad, but it isn't great either. Again, he is in the lower third of the league in that category. Other QB's with similar completion percentages to him: Jay Cutler, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Matt Cassel. That's not what I would call stellar company, the only elite quarterback in that group may be Cam, who's completion percentage is skewed by how many deep passes he throws.

Unlike LeBron's hairline, completion percentage doesn't change much during a player's career. Completion percentage may fluctuate by a couple of points when a player enters his prime or upgrades receivers, but rarely does someone jump into that elite level of completing 63-68 per cent of their passes from 58 per cent.

The only modern example I found of a player having a big jump in completion percentage actually had similar stats to Tannehill in his rookie year.

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate

XXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

16

575

326

56.7

35.9

3,739

6.5

233.7

26

4.5

28

4.9

78T

42

8

22

109

71.2

Pretty close right? Player B had more yards but also had more attempts. He threw for more TD's and picks, but had a similar ratio to our boy Tanny. But like I said, Player B had a big jump in completion percentage the rest of his career and currently has a career completion percentage of 65 per cent.

So who is Player B?

Only Peyton Manning!

Now that's what's up! Dolphins missed on Peyton but drafted the future Peyton? Yeah! Throw away the Fireland posters! Give him an extension!

Not quite.

Peyton is the exception, and most definitely, not the rule. Most quarterbacks don't improve their percentages during their career by that much from their baseline percentage displayed in their rookie year.

It doesn't mean that Tannehill can't be the next Peyton, but it means that he probably won't.

As I watched Tannehill all year, I saw a few flashes of a future All-Pro. I also saw a lot of third down ineptitude. And all those excuses ran through my head to defend him. What discouraged me, was looking at the other rookie quarterbacks and seeing how few questions surrounded them.

Here in Miami, we're all asking if Tannehill is the answer. Desperately hoping he is.

In DC, nobody is asking if RGIII is the answer.

Same thing with Luck and Russell Wilson. Indy and Seattle are confident they have found their franchise quarterbacks. Those fan bases are planning trips to the playoffs for the next ten years.

Its like getting married, if you have to convince yourself that she's the one. She's probably not the one. Likewise if you have to convince yourself that you have a franchise quarterback, you probably don't.

Let me just say that I hope I am wrong. I hope all of you flood my Twitter with this link when Tannehill is winning the Superbowl in a few years. I genuinely like the guy. And I like that we took a chance and drafted a quarterback in the first round. However, I think it was a two quarterback draft and we got the third. (I'm not going to count Russell Wilson against them.)

There is still a chance for Tannehill to develop into a special player. Again, the arguments for him are that he is only a rookie, playing without a number one receiver, or any legitimate play makers on offense. We have to fill those holes, and build around this kid. Give it some time and we will know in the next two seasons if Tannehill is the answer. If he makes the leap and can improve his play in the next two years, he may be the solution. If not, fire up the QB carousel. It will be time for the Dolphins to start over and pick another passer at the top of the 2015 draft.

Bummer.

Go Dolphins.