Is Tannehill the Answer?

The NFL season is over. The Dolphins stunningly missed the playoffs, again. Indifference runs rampant over the city of Miami. But one question needs to be answered, is Ryan Tannehill the next Marino or the next Cleo Lemon? That's the big question, right? That's what this whole season has really been about. This season wasn't about making the playoffs. It wasn't really about rebuilding either. It was a 16 week audition to see if Ryan Tannehill is a franchise quarterback.

The Dolphins looked competitive all year, but not spectacular, and from the basic stats, the same could be said for Tannehill. Here's his line:

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
2012	Miami Dolphins	16	484	282	58.3	30.2	3,294	6.8	205.9	12	2.5	13	2.7	80T	40	3	35	234	76.1

Pretty good. I mean, we are currently in an era where the top quarterbacks are throwing for 5,000 yards, everybody is throwing for 4,000 yards and our quarterback barely threw for 3,000 yards. But hey, at least he didn't do this. The advanced stats are not as friendly. Here is where he stacks up according to Football Outsiders' advanced stats:

DYAR: 25^th

DVOA: 25^th

QBR: 19^th

Not so great. Bottom third of the league. Ah, the Dolphins, nothing if not consistently underwhelming. Yes, he's only a rookie but how far does that excuse go? We've been through this with Henne. He showed flashes and then had some duds. Henne observers broke into two camps, one wanted to oust him in his second season, and the other preached patience. I was even leaning on the patience side, saying that he needed more time, that stability at quarterback would lead to winning, and I didn't want to rebuild again. While all of that is true, none of those statements are endorsements of his talent. It was obvious he wasn't going to be the guy, and I never realized it. I can't say many different things about Tannehill. Just for fun, here are the stats for Henne's first year:

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate

2009

Miami Dolphins

14

451

274

60.8

32.2

2,878

6.4

205.6

12

2.7

14

3.1

67

23

4

26

176

75.2

Yikes...

That is pretty similar. However, Henne had Brandon Marshall at receiver, and Tannehill is throwing to this guy. Hartline and Bess haven't exactly been creating a lot of separation on the field. I mean even Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend was better at keeping her distance from defensive players. Sorry.

But the lack of a number one receiver shouldn't be overlooked. Football is an inexact science, and we can't really tell when a receiver makes a quarterback look good or when a quarterback makes a receiver look good. Except for the case of Brandon Stokley and Peyton Manning. If it wasn't for Peyton Manning, Brandon Stokley would clearly be a sandwich artist at some Subway in Virginia by now.

The big number that I look at in judging quarterbacks is completion percentage. I value accuracy above every other trait in a quarterback. I always like rolling the dice on an accurate passer. You can keep the big-armed QB and hope he turns into the next Brett Favre or John Elway but you will probably end up with another Jamarcus. I will draft the accurate quarterback and hope he turns into Aaron Rodgers, but will settle for Rich Gannon.

That being said, Tannehill's completion percentage isn't bad, but it isn't great either. Again, he is in the lower third of the league in that category. Other QB's with similar completion percentages to him: Jay Cutler, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, and Matt Cassel. That's not what I would call stellar company, the only elite quarterback in that group may be Cam, who's completion percentage is skewed by how many deep passes he throws.

Unlike LeBron's hairline, completion percentage doesn't change much during a player's career. Completion percentage may fluctuate by a couple of points when a player enters his prime or upgrades receivers, but rarely does someone jump into that elite level of completing 63-68 per cent of their passes from 58 per cent.

The only modern example I found of a player having a big jump in completion percentage actually had similar stats to Tannehill in his rookie year.

Year	Team	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate

XXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

16

575

326

56.7

35.9

3,739

6.5

233.7

26

4.5

28

4.9

78T

42

8

22

109

71.2

Pretty close right? Player B had more yards but also had more attempts. He threw for more TD's and picks, but had a similar ratio to our boy Tanny. But like I said, Player B had a big jump in completion percentage the rest of his career and currently has a career completion percentage of 65 per cent.

So who is Player B?

Only Peyton Manning!

Now that's what's up! Dolphins missed on Peyton but drafted the future Peyton? Yeah! Throw away the Fireland posters! Give him an extension!

Not quite.

Peyton is the exception, and most definitely, not the rule. Most quarterbacks don't improve their percentages during their career by that much from their baseline percentage displayed in their rookie year.

It doesn't mean that Tannehill can't be the next Peyton, but it means that he probably won't.

As I watched Tannehill all year, I saw a few flashes of a future All-Pro. I also saw a lot of third down ineptitude. And all those excuses ran through my head to defend him. What discouraged me, was looking at the other rookie quarterbacks and seeing how few questions surrounded them.

Here in Miami, we're all asking if Tannehill is the answer. Desperately hoping he is.

In DC, nobody is asking if RGIII is the answer.

Same thing with Luck and Russell Wilson. Indy and Seattle are confident they have found their franchise quarterbacks. Those fan bases are planning trips to the playoffs for the next ten years.

Its like getting married, if you have to convince yourself that she's the one. She's probably not the one. Likewise if you have to convince yourself that you have a franchise quarterback, you probably don't.

Let me just say that I hope I am wrong. I hope all of you flood my Twitter with this link when Tannehill is winning the Superbowl in a few years. I genuinely like the guy. And I like that we took a chance and drafted a quarterback in the first round. However, I think it was a two quarterback draft and we got the third. (I'm not going to count Russell Wilson against them.)

There is still a chance for Tannehill to develop into a special player. Again, the arguments for him are that he is only a rookie, playing without a number one receiver, or any legitimate play makers on offense. We have to fill those holes, and build around this kid. Give it some time and we will know in the next two seasons if Tannehill is the answer. If he makes the leap and can improve his play in the next two years, he may be the solution. If not, fire up the QB carousel. It will be time for the Dolphins to start over and pick another passer at the top of the 2015 draft.

Bummer.

Go Dolphins.