The NFL season is over. The Dolphins
stunningly missed the playoffs, again. Indifference runs rampant over
the city of Miami. But one question needs to be answered, is Ryan
Tannehill the next Marino or the next Cleo Lemon? That's the big
question, right? That's what this whole season has really been about.
This season wasn't about making the playoffs. It wasn't really about
rebuilding either. It was a 16 week audition to see if Ryan Tannehill
is a franchise quarterback.
The Dolphins looked competitive all
year, but not spectacular, and from the basic stats, the same could
be said for Tannehill. Here's his line:
| Year | Team | G | Att | Comp | Pct | Att/G | Yds | Avg | Yds/G | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Lng | 20+ | 40+ | Sck | SckY | Rate |
| 2012 | Miami Dolphins | 16 | 484 | 282 | 58.3 | 30.2 | 3,294 | 6.8 | 205.9 | 12 | 2.5 | 13 | 2.7 | 80T | 40 | 3 | 35 | 234 | 76.1 |
Pretty good. I mean, we are currently
in an era where the top quarterbacks are throwing for 5,000 yards,
everybody is throwing for 4,000 yards and our quarterback barely
threw for 3,000 yards. But hey, at least he didn't do this. The advanced
stats are not as friendly. Here is where he stacks up according to
Football Outsiders' advanced stats:
DYAR: 25th
QBR: 19th
Not so great. Bottom third of the
league. Ah, the Dolphins, nothing if not consistently underwhelming.
Yes, he's only a rookie but how far does that excuse go? We've been
through this with Henne. He showed flashes and then had some duds.
Henne observers broke into two camps, one wanted to oust him in his
second season, and the other preached patience. I was even leaning on
the patience side, saying that he needed more time, that stability at
quarterback would lead to winning, and I didn't want to rebuild
again. While all of that is true, none of those statements are
endorsements of his talent. It was obvious he wasn't going to be the
guy, and I never realized it. I can't say many different things about
Tannehill. Just for fun, here are the stats for Henne's first year:
| Year | Team | G | Att | Comp | Pct | Att/G | Yds | Avg | Yds/G | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Lng | 20+ | 40+ | Sck | SckY | Rate |
| 2009 | Miami Dolphins | 14 | 451 | 274 | 60.8 | 32.2 | 2,878 | 6.4 | 205.6 | 12 | 2.7 | 14 | 3.1 | 67 | 23 | 4 | 26 | 176 | 75.2 |
Yikes...
That is pretty similar. However, Henne
had Brandon Marshall at receiver, and Tannehill is throwing to this
guy.
Hartline and Bess haven't exactly been creating a lot of separation
on the field. I mean even Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend was better at
keeping her distance from defensive players. Sorry.
But the lack of a number one receiver
shouldn't be overlooked. Football is an inexact science, and we can't
really tell when a receiver makes a quarterback look good or when a
quarterback makes a receiver look good. Except for the case of
Brandon Stokley and Peyton Manning. If it wasn't for Peyton Manning,
Brandon Stokley would clearly be a sandwich artist at some Subway in
Virginia by now.
The big number that I look at in
judging quarterbacks is completion percentage. I value accuracy above
every other trait in a quarterback. I always like rolling the dice on
an accurate passer. You can keep the big-armed QB and hope he turns
into the next Brett Favre or John Elway but you will probably end up
with another Jamarcus. I will draft the accurate quarterback and hope
he turns into Aaron Rodgers, but will settle for Rich Gannon.
That being said, Tannehill's completion
percentage isn't bad, but it isn't great either. Again, he is in the
lower third of the league in that category. Other QB's with similar
completion percentages to him: Jay Cutler, Blaine Gabbert, Cam
Newton, and Matt Cassel. That's not what I would call stellar
company, the only elite quarterback in that group may be Cam, who's
completion percentage is skewed by how many deep passes he throws.
Unlike LeBron's hairline, completion
percentage doesn't change much during a player's career. Completion
percentage may fluctuate by a couple of points when a player enters
his prime or upgrades receivers, but rarely does someone jump into
that elite level of completing 63-68 per cent of their passes from 58
per cent.
The only modern example I found of a
player having a big jump in completion percentage actually had
similar stats to Tannehill in his rookie year.
| Year | Team | G | Att | Comp | Pct | Att/G | Yds | Avg | Yds/G | TD | TD% | Int | Int% | Lng | 20+ | 40+ | Sck | SckY | Rate |
Pretty close right? Player B had more
yards but also had more attempts. He threw for more TD's and picks,
but had a similar ratio to our boy Tanny. But like I said, Player B
had a big jump in completion percentage the rest of his career and
currently has a career completion percentage of 65 per cent.
So who is Player B?
Only Peyton Manning!
Now that's what's up! Dolphins missed
on Peyton but drafted the future Peyton? Yeah! Throw away the
Fireland posters! Give him an extension!
Not quite.
Peyton is the exception, and most
definitely, not the rule. Most quarterbacks don't improve their
percentages during their career by that much from their baseline
percentage displayed in their rookie year.
It doesn't mean that Tannehill can't be
the next Peyton, but it means that he probably won't.
As I watched Tannehill all year, I saw
a few flashes of a future All-Pro. I also saw a lot of third down
ineptitude. And all those excuses ran through my head to defend him.
What discouraged me, was looking at the other rookie quarterbacks and
seeing how few questions surrounded them.
Here in Miami, we're all asking if
Tannehill is the answer. Desperately hoping he is.
In DC, nobody is asking if RGIII is the
answer.
Same thing with Luck and Russell
Wilson. Indy and Seattle are confident they have found their
franchise quarterbacks. Those fan bases are planning trips to the
playoffs for the next ten years.
Its like getting married, if you have
to convince yourself that she's the one. She's probably not the one.
Likewise if you have to convince yourself that you have a franchise
quarterback, you probably don't.
Let me just say that I hope I am wrong.
I hope all of you flood my Twitter with this link when Tannehill is
winning the Superbowl in a few years. I genuinely like the guy. And I
like that we took a chance and drafted a quarterback in the first
round. However, I think it was a two quarterback draft and we got the
third. (I'm not going to count Russell Wilson against them.)
There is still a chance for Tannehill
to develop into a special player. Again, the arguments for him are
that he is only a rookie, playing without a number one receiver, or
any legitimate play makers on offense. We have to fill those holes,
and build around this kid. Give it some time and we will know in the
next two seasons if Tannehill is the answer. If he makes the leap and
can improve his play in the next two years, he may be the solution.
If not, fire up the QB carousel. It will be time for the Dolphins to
start over and pick another passer at the top of the 2015 draft.
Bummer.
Go Dolphins.
