Dolphins Rebuilding Plan

Tony Sparano is out as Dolphins’ head coach. Before the NBA gets up and running and consumes South Florida and this blog along with it, I need to carve out some time to discuss the recent developments in Davie.

First of all, I’m sad to see Sparano go on a personal level. I loved his ever present sunglasses, his reliance on statistics, the way he chomped on gum as his jaw bulged with the tension of the job, his enthusiasm for field goals, and having a big Italian guy with a mafioso name running the team. It should have worked. He should have ascended to a nickname like “the Godfather,” retired and opened up a successful chain of gourmet pizza shops in Plantation. But it didn’t happen.

Tony is out. You can’t really blame the owner, the team is flawed but talented and starting 0-7 is inexcusable. There needed to be accountability at the top of the organization and a change in leadership. Keeping Jeff Ireland at GM has been a controversial decision and while I think the local media is swinging too far in his defense, the dude hasn’t proven he is more than an average GM, I am alright with him staying another year. Just because that means we don’t have to bring in another blueprint and go through the fiasco of overhauling the roster again.

This team has some talent, and some obvious weak spots. I decided to hash out the keepers on the team from the junk. This handy list will help you in deciding if you should applaud Ireland’s move this off season or fork his lawn.

Let’s start off with the bonafide studs on the team, the elite players that any team would love to have. By my accounts there are only four. That pretty much sums up why the Dolphins have been struggling.

The Studs:

-Jake Long LT: He was the number 1 pick just a few years ago. He has had a down year because he has been hurt, but he is a young Pro Bowler at left tackle and would be valued as a franchise player on the open market. You keep Jake Long, end of story.

-Vontae Davis CB: For a long time I thought Sean Smith would be the better pro between our two young cornerbacks, but Davis has won me over. He has great athleticism, Brett Favre’s endorsement as one of the best young corners in the league and a disturbingly appropriate nickname for a bothersome corner. NFL receivers just can’t get rid of VD.

-Brandon Marshall WR: No one doubts that Brandon Marshall has the talent and physical tools to be the dominant receiver he was in Denver, he just hasn’t had the quarterback while he has been here. My favorite part of the Matt Moore experience has been his lack of fear in feeding Marshall the ball. Moore throws it up for him even if Revis is covering him, and given the chance, Marshall comes down with the football more often than not. This last half of the season has reminded me of Marshall’s elite talent, you can unquestionably win the Superbowl with Marshall as your number one receiver. As long as he doesn’t get stabbed by his wife again, I think he will break some Miami receiving records when we get a QB to pair up with him.

-Cameron Wake OLB: I debated whether or not he should be included in the “studs” list. He had a breakout year and was a Pro Bowler in 2010 but has slowed down this year. My uninformed hypothesis is that he is drawing double teams and freeing up space for Old Man Jason Taylor to work his way up the all time sack leader board. It comes down to the fact that unless you are the Pittsburgh Steelers its hard to find pass rushers. Wake still has a few years left of top shelf production, thus Derek Cameron Wake is a keeper.

Keepers (not elite, but productive role players you can win with, and possible future franchise guys):

-Reggie Bush HB: Reggie made Miami look really smart this past off season. He shut up his critics by staying healthy, running between the tackles, and he is closing in on a 1,000 yard season. Running backs have a short prime, Bush is still damaged goods (due to his injury history and his romance with Kim Kardashian), and this could be a one year abberation, but the Fins got him for cheap and he’s earned the right to be the feature back going into next year.

-Charles Clay FB: Sure he sometimes struggles in pass protection and run blocking, but he is a fullback that catches bombs! He is averaging 16.5 yards per catch. You have to keep a fullback with that unique skill set.

-Mike Pouncey C: He may be on the studs list in a couple of seasons. He is a promising young center. I know for the Dolphins it is commonplace but most teams don’t have first round picks playing on the offensive line, you have to keep an investment like that. It just so happens this investment looks solid.

-Daniel Thomas HB: A ho-hum young running back that has shown flashes of being special. We got him on the low, no reason to cut the chord yet.

-Jared Odrick, Randy Starks, Paul Solai, Kendall Langford DL: Say what you want about Jeff Ireland, but the dude has got an eye for defensive lineman. We have a wealth of talent on that side of the trenches and the 3-4 defense can be successful without elite D lineman. Keep ‘em if you can get them to stay for cheap.

-Karlos Dansby MLB: The self proclaimed best linebacker in the NFL has clearly lost a step this season but he has still played at a high level. We have too much money in him to move him, we might as well enjoy this level of play while it lasts.

-Sean Smith CB: He is a keeper, Miami fans! I know he drops picks and blows assignments from time to time but he is a rare blend of size and speed at cornerback. We need to hold on to him and cross our fingers that he isn’t the next Jason Allen.

-Jimmy Wilson CB: Yeah, I know he allegedly killed a guy but that hasn’t stopped Ray Lewis. He is a rookie with a nose for the ball and just a playmaker. He already had some timely picks and a punt block this season. If he didn’t have that whole murder trial thing, he probably would have been drafted much higher. Jimmy Wilson is a keeper.

Fringe (players on the bubble of the keeper list):

-Davone Bess WR: Bess is a tease. Some weeks he looks like Wes Welker with braids, some weeks he looks like an average possession receiver. Well at least we haven’t given him a big extension before we figured it out. Wait, what? We already did?

-Koa Misi OLB: Also known as Koa “Missing” because he is never around the ball. On a defense where everybody seems to have their moments in the sun, Misi is stuck in the shadows. But he is still very young and quietly racks up tackles. He may turn into something, but I won’t be heartbroken if we go in another direction.

-Yeremiah Bell SS: For a long time he was the heart and soul of this team at safety. He may have one or two more effective years left, but I don’t know if it will be worth his asking price. We shall see.

-Dan Carpenter, Brandon Fields K/P: The way the NFL recycles the same 50 kickers regardless of recent perfomance, I honestly have no idea how they evaluate them. I didn’t know where to put our kickers, so I put them here.


Everyone Else:

Can go. Or stay. I don’t care. Their collective presence won’t largely impact the Dolphins’ Superbowl odds. All apologies to JT 99, thanks for everything, but you’re time is almost up.

Next Step:

As you can see, we have some semblance of a foundation. We are still a few pieces away. I would like to see the Dolphins revamp the right side of their O-line, and draft an athletic, pass catching, tight end, but the crux of the issue is at quarterback. If we can draft and develop an elite passer, I am confident that this team can win a Superbowl no matter who coaches them. (Please! Don’t let it be Brian Schottenheimer!) Can you picture it? I can see RG3 or Matt Barkley throwing the Superbowl winning touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall, then Reggie Bush showing off his beautiful biceps during the post game press conference.

I’m already excited for next season. 16-0 baby!

Marlins Trying to Buy Legitimacy by Following Angels Blueprint

In this Bizarro sports town of Miami, Dolphins fans are complaining about winning, the Heat are signing Eddy Curry, and the Marlins are spending money.

Lots of money.

Like hundreds of millions of dollars kind of money.

This is foreign to the fan base. Many Marlins fans are waking up in the morning looking to see who we signed and wondering if this is what it feels like to be a Yankees fan.

To be fair, this isn’t entirely new. After the 2003 World Series, the Marlins increased the payroll up to $90 million, but after a couple of 83 win seasons, they blew up the roster again.

But this is a new Marlins team. No longer representing the whole state, the Marlins have disbanded all claims north of the 305 and renamed themselves the Miami Marlins.

With this new stadium came new uniforms and the promise of a new business strategy, that they would pay out big time money for top free agents.

A lot of people saw this as a smokescreen to sell season tickets. Skeptics claimed that the Marlins would go out there, put in low ball offers to the top free agents, get rejected, and claim that they tried. They would pocket the revenue and laugh at the sucker fans.

This is far from what happened. At 12:01 AM on the first day of free agency, the Marlins were meeting with Jose Reyes’ and his agent. They placed a long term offer of over $100 million and reeled him in before the winter meetings got into full swing.

They didn’t stop there. After landing Reyes, the Marlins’ brass went all in after Albert Pujols, pushing his offer up to 10 years and some reports say over $275 million. (Other journalists say that figure is unfounded.) However, Pujols declined the offer and decided to sign with the Angels.

Regardless, the team has remade themselves. In a matter of weeks, the fans went from crying that the Marlins don’t spend enough money, to saying that they are spending too much money on dumb contracts.

Sure, the Marlins probably overspent on an aging closer in Heath Bell. And Miami probably overpaid for an above average lefty with no upside in Mark Buehrle.

But it is all part of the plan.

In Major League Baseball, perception is reality.
If you want to be viewed as a contender, a consistent winner, and an attractive place for free agents and season ticket holders, you need to spend.

While the Marlins were shining exceptions the past 15 years, in general, the winners in baseball are the teams with the highest payrolls.

There is a reason that the Yankees made the playoffs 13 seasons in a row by spending on marquee free agents, and the first year they decided to invest in the farm system and rely on young pitching, the streak was snapped.

Spending wins in baseball. Not every time, but most of the time.

The Marlins want to be seen as winners, so they have to be seen as spenders.

The only problem is, it is hard to gain momentum and change that initial perception from mid market team to big city spenders. That is why the Marlins had to overpay Reyes, Bell, and Buerhle to sign on to this new vision. They needed the rest of the league to look around and say, “Wait, this isn’t the same team anymore.”

You have to overspend to get the initial crop of talent into the team. Hopefully, that talent wins you more games, and changes players’ perceptions of your team, thus making it easier to bring in more big free agents in the future and sell more tickets.

The Marlins weren’t just buying a shortstop, they were buying legitimacy. They weren’t just overpaying for an old closer, they were overpaying to change how they are viewed. Miami wasn’t just filling out their rotation with starting pitching, they were trying to become one of the big boys.

Funny enough, the team that beat out the Marlins for two of their top targets, the Angels, have completed this transformation over the past decade.

In many ways, the Marlins are following the same blueprint that the Angels used in the early 2000’s.

In 2002, the Anaheim Angels won the World Series. After the season, Disney sold the team to Arte Moreno. Moreno wanted to make the team a bigger brand and a consistent winner to sell more tickets and generally be successful.

So what did Moreno do?

He changed the team name from Anaheim and claimed greater Los Angeles. He changed the uniforms, colors, and logo. He wanted to make the Angels a brand and settled on one logo (out of ten in use!), and focused on making red the Halos’ trademarked color.

His final step? Increase payroll.

Does any of this sound familiar, Miami?

He went out and pursued big time free agents and trade acquisitions. He landed players such as Vlad Guerrero and Mark Teixeira. Big names with big time talent.

After Moreno made these changes, the Angels became a perennial favorite in the AL West. They won their division five out of the next seven years. And the team had three consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

More importantly than all of that, Moreno changed the perception of the Angels. No one still views the Angels as a joke, or a doorstep. When the Angels have a losing record, it is viewed as a surprise and a bump in the road, not the symptoms of a perennial loser.

Basically he transformed the Angels from losers to winners.

This change in the brand, change in attitude, and change in perception no doubt helped the Angels land land Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this month.

So if you want to see where the Miami Marlins are going, look to the LA Angels. This the foundation that we are pursuing. The Marlins are trying to build a successful franchise pretty much from the ground up using the Angels blueprint. While they had to overpay for talent this month, in general I like the moves.

The Marlins are combining a young, talented, homegrown core, with big time free agents.

They are trying to buy respect.

Now let’s see if it works.

Miami Heat Offseason Preview

Let’s face it, the only Miami team that garners national attention is the Heat. And with the Dolphins stuck in the mud of mediocrity, the Heat may be the only team South Florida cares about right now.

Thankfully, the NBA is back.

As a person who eats and breathes sports, the return of the Heat makes my obsession seem more sane. Nobody but me and Wade Leblanc’s family cares that he was just traded to the Marlins (great move for the Fish by the way), but everybody has an opinion on LeBron James. So for a sports junkie like me, the NBA means more sports conversations instead of actually socializing. Bring it on!

I'm sure it took my sad blog post for David Stern and Billy Hunter to come to their senses. So I will understand if you want to send flowers or cards to the Miami Sports Machine and thank us for the return of the NBA. It really would be the least you could do.

Back to important things, this season is huge for the Heat. It is the return of the most villainous team since the Bad Boy Pistons, and is led by the most polarizing player since Kobe raped that girl in Colorado. What's that? We're all going to keep pretending like that never happened? Okay, I'll go back to hating that guy for his charity event that was a little egotistical.

Anyways, I fully expect the Heat will win the NBA championship this year. They were two wins away last year and this team will be better.

How will they be better?

Simply put, better health and Mickey Arison's deep pockets.

Last offseason, the Heat spent almost all of their money on the LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. The rest of it went to Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. Miami was banking on a rotation of at least five championship caliber players, and hoping they would get lucky on three more. Most teams use a heavy rotation of eight players.

What they ended up with was three and a half.

Haslem missed the entire regular season, Mike Miller was never Mike Miller, but surprisingly, Mario Chalmers turned into a real NBA player near the end of the season.

That shows you how talented LeBron and Wade actually are. And to some extent, Bosh.

This year is already a lot different from last year. So far everyone is healthy (edit: almost everyone). While that can change quickly (it did) it is already an improvement over last year when the Heat started the preseason without Wade, UD, and Miller.

Haslem has looked strong since his return in the playoffs last year and while he is getting older, he has been durable throughout the majority of his career. I tend to view last season’s injury as more of an aberration than a sign of decline. As an added bonus, UD also caught up with the rest of America and became the last black guy in the country to cut his cornrows. He narrowly beat out Trey Songz. That's got to count for something.

Probably the biggest reason I believe in the Heat this year is because of Mike Miller. I wrote this column when he was still healthy, but now it appears he has a hernia injury and will miss two months. That's what I get for proof reading.

Regardless, many of my points still apply. He played last year with two busted thumbs. That is hard, especially for a guy who's meal ticket is dropping bombs from beyond the arc. Everybody says Miller's injury takes a full year to recover from and all of the other players were amazed he was playing through that injury. Throughout his career, Miller has been one of the top shooters in the NBA. He has consistently had streaks where he would shoot over 50% from three point territory. To put that in perspective, someone who shoots 40% from three is considered a sharpshooter. Miller is a career 48% three point shooter. Then, last year Miller gets hurt and starts missing open threes. Now the media assumes that he lost it.

So, I can either think last year proved Miller can no longer make a shot he has made since he was in the crib, because he magically lost his touch, or chalk it up to the injury? I'm going with the latter.

I believe that this hernia injury should be an easier recovery for a shooter like Miller, and he will return to form this season. However, the hernia injury isn’t helping his cause and he is likely to get amnestied. Man, it will be fun watching Mike Miller drop 30 points on us in the second round of the playoffs next year, when he is healthy and starting for the Bulls.

The other reason for my confidence is money. The new collective bargaining agreement ended up being more favorable to the Miami Heat. It looks like the new CBA will keep the soft salary cap and mid level exception.

Let me translate the nerd talk for you. The NBA gives each team a certain amount of money to spend on players (or poker games if you're the Maloof brothers) and caps it. A team can go over the cap to resign their own players and each team over the cap is given a mid level exception worth about five million dollars to improve their teams (most teams instead waste this on overpaying role players or Shaquille O’Neal). Teams can also go over the cap to fill out their rosters with guys willing to take the league's minimum salary. This group normally consists of veterans willing to take a pay cut in an attempt to win a ring before retirement. Teams can go as far over the cap as they are willing to pay. Teams over the cap eventually hit the “luxury tax” which means they have to pay $2-4 to the league for every dollar they pay over the cap in salary.

Let me lay out the slightly delusional but absolutely perfect way for this to go for the Heat. The bottom of the rotation guys and Mario Chalmers should free up enough cap space for the Heat to target a starting center like Samuel Dalembert, or ideally, Nene. He is a good young player and would be a perfect fit for the Heat. However, Pat Riley's Armani suits and car salesman charm would have to talk him in to taking a severe pay cut.

After the Heat use up their cap space they will likely target another rotation guy with their mid level exception. Remember, we want eight rotation guys. A center would put us at six. This money would go to a player like Shane Battier. As long as no one inflates his value. Battier would be a good fit, but if the Nets’ crazy Russian billionaire owner decides defensive basketball will excite the Brooklyn fan base and offers Battier a lucrative contract, then the Heat might have to go in another direction. Look for them to target someone like Michael Redd, Tayshaun Prince or Grant Hill. I know, sexy pick ups.

After tapping out their cap space and mid level exception, the Heat could then go over the cap to resign Mario Chalmers. This is if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. It is something Mickey Arison would probably be happy to do because he most likely uses 100 dollar bills as post it notes. I think to pay him back, Heat fans should go on a Carnival cruise this summer after the Finals.

It sounds like Chalmers wants to come back. I can only assume this is because he enjoys getting yelled at by LeBron in front of arenas full of thousands of people. Whatever, its not my life choice. Chalmers would probably end up as the starting point guard and fill out the rotation at eight.

Miami could then look to improve the end of the bench,the reserves, the guys who only play a few minutes a game, and don’t make a significant impact on the final score. The Heat would turn to ring chasing veterans who are willing to play for the league minimum.

Miami will be better here as well, due to last year’s success. By reaching the Finals, the Heat are viewed as a safer bet by older players who want to win it all this year. I don’t see anything like the Derek Fisher situation happening again. Last year, we offered Fisher as much money as the Lakers, but he chose to resign with them because he thought they had a better chance to win the championship. This year, the Heat are less of a mystery and an easier sell to these ring hungry vets looking to bet their last year on a contender.

That means that overall, the Heat will be a much better team from players 4-12. Of course the talent drop off from LeBron to a bench player will still be significant, however the disparity won’t be quite as large. Instead of a guy like Jerry Stackhouse filling in, it will be a guy like Baron Davis.

Last year, the gap between the bottom of the roster and top of the roster was enormous. This year, Miami looks to close that gap. Hopefully, the worst four players on the Heat bench will no longer also be the worst four players in the entire league. I’m thinking that this year the worst four players on the bench will be around the bottom 150 players in the league. That’s a distinct upgrade!

To go all economics on you, the lowered marginal value between our starters and bench will be even more influential during this lockout shortened season. Due to the condensed schedule, teams will have to play more back to back games and will have fewer days off in between games in general. This means that the back ups will have to play more than they would in a normal length NBA season. So teams with better benches will have a larger advantage than they did last year. Having depth should generate more wins than it used to. This is good if the Heat follow my blueprint and stockpile talent on their bench.

First you get the money, then you get the mid level exception, then you get the players, then you get the ring. Picking the Heat this year is an easy choice. They should be the prohibitive favorites. They will be healthier, more talented, deeper, and better equipped to deal with injuries.

We were two wins away last year!

TWO!

These upgrades are worth way more than two wins. If you factor in LeBron’s possible hair plugs, then we could compete for the wins record. (By percentage. Friggin' lockout.)

Take it from the Miami Sports Machine. Prepare yourself South Florida, for a number one seed in the East and a brutalizing run through the playoffs. Get ready to watch Skip Bayless’ eyes roll into the back of his head as he collapses into a seizure because the King will be getting his first ring.

Of course all of this is pure speculation with a little guesswork mixed in. I could be completely wrong. If that’s the case, then I will put on my new Wade Leblanc jersey and wait for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training.

Four Years Later: Why Did the Dolphins Ever Trade Wes Welker?

I miss Wes Welker.

The last time the Dolphins were this bad, Wes Welker was the only bright spot.

Its frustrating to see us with two wins and look across the East Coast to see Wes Welker threaten Jerry Rice's single season receiving record.

That tiny white man can play.

I remember watching Wes Welker play for the Miami Dolphins from 2004-2007 and slowly morph into everyone's favorite player.

The dude did everything. He returned punts, kicks, caught passes, even kicked a few field goals for us.

Everyone was bummed when the Dolphins traded him to the Patriots. He was the only weapon that worked against the Pats. But we all consoled ourselves, told ourselves that Welker was an was a flash in the pan and we won the trade. I remember talking myself into the thinking that the Dolphins could find a bigger, more prototypical wide receiver for the 2nd round pick that New England gave us that would surpass Welker's production.

I was wrong.

When you have a talent like Wes Welker, you hold on to him.

The Patriots gave us their 2nd round pick and 7th round pick that year for Wes.

So, now that we have four years of perspective on the move, what did the Dolphins end up with?

In typical Dolphins fashion, we replaced a dazzling skill player with offensive linemen.

The first cog in that trade was Samson Satele, who was picked with that second rounder. Ol' Cam Cam also picked a guy named Abraham Wright with that 7th round pick, a defensive end I've never heard of, and unless you are Abraham Wright's mom, you've never heard of him either.

This was during Cam Cameron's one year reign of "failing, forward, fast." For some reason, Cam had an obsession with the Pacific islands and loved to draft Samoans and graduates from University of Hawaii.

Samson Satele was a part of that bunch, an undersized center from Hawaii and a two year starter for the Dolphins. He didn't miss a game and proved to be a solid piece of the 2008 "wildcat" team. He was a big part of that offensive line that bullied front sevens and created a potent rushing attack.

But Satele couldn't last under Parcells. Parcells hates exceptions. He has standards for every position and if someone doesn't fit the physical parameters, they are gone. He is known for not drafting exceptions because before you know it, there is a team full of exceptions. Which is a fine system if you find players that fit your expectations and have, you know, talent. But instead he drafts 6'5 wide receivers like Patrick Turner that everyone says has no big play ability and very little potential. You have to love it when your team takes fliers on guys with limited potential.

So Satele was replaced by the bigger Jake Grove, and traded to Oakland for a 6th round pick. Grove signed a big contract but never could match the production of Satele and flamed out after a year with the Dolphins. The offensive line clearly took a step back and the running game suffered as the Dolphins limped to a 7-9 record.

Following the paper trail from Wes Welker, the Dolphins performed the worst magic trick in the world and transformed a 2nd round pick into a 6th round pick.

That 6th round pick became Andrew Gardner, an offensive tackle that has been an occasional spot starter at various points on the line and was soon released. He now plays with the Texans. A far cry from the Pro Bowl receiver we traded away.

That's where the value completely ends.

So lets review that one more time. The Dolphins say, "Hey look at that guy Welker. The fans love him. He does everything well. He provides a spark whenever he touches the ball. The Patriots want him. Stupid Belichick. We can get a better player with that 2nd round pick. A strong player, a center."

Then that center slowly turns into an empty roster spot.

Four years later, the Dolphins have nothing to show for the deal and the Patriots have a future Hall of Fame receiver who might set the record for most receiving yards in a single season.

We essentially gave the Patriots Wes Welker for NOTHING.

But hey, at least we didn't repeatedly try to fix the offensive line with resources from the Welker trade, then fail so badly that we had to take ANOTHER center, in the first round four years later.

Look, I know that you can look at any team's history and find bad trades. I get it, everyone misses occasionally. But to watch the Dolphins make a succession of moves like this, in which every transaction was questioned every step of the way, and the Dolphins consistently receive diminishing value in return, shows why the Dolphins are in the toilet and the Patriots are looking for their fourth Superbowl win this decade.

The reason why the Dolphins magically turn value into trash is because the lack of continuity in the front office. There is so much turnover every year, that new management comes in and ships out established talent to bring in their own guys, even if they don't get full value in return for their moves.

What you end up with is talented players being traded away for cents on the dollar and bits and pieces of several different visions from several different coaches. The Dolphins are made up of patchwork veterans that Saban brought in, terrible players from the Cam Cameron era, hulking overpriced lineman that Parcells drafted, and flashy ragtag players Sparano and Ireland signed in an attempt to save their jobs.

You can't build a winner like that. You can't take the various blueprints of different failed coaches, mash them together and win a Superbowl.

The sad thing is, this will only be more of the same in the coming months.

Sparano will be fired, and a new coach will come in. He will get rid of the few talented guys that Sparano acquired, just to separate himself from the past regime. He will want to put his own mark on the organization and trade away players at a discount to give him the flexibility to bring in players he likes.

Continually developing the players and not reaping the returns on that time investment.

What happens is that the Dolphins keep conceding value until their is nothing left.

They end up with lopsided deals like Wes Welker for nothing.

We Need the Miami Heat

The horrific stories about Penn State and Wilson Ramos have overshadowed the latest meetings between NBA players and owners.

While this is deservedly so, as Miami sports fan who recently watched the Dolphins take a big step back in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, I can't help but stayed glued to any news regarding the lockout.

I need the NBA.

My starting quarterback is Matt Moore.

I need the Miami Heat in my life.

My baseball team is about to reveal jerseys that look like this.

Its been a while but do you remember what last NBA season felt like?

It was a supercharged sprint of thoroughbreds up to the NBA Finals.

The Heat started 7-8 and everyone counted them out. Then, they went on an amazing winter tear and showed flashes of dominance. They came into the playoffs strong grabbing the two seed.

And the Celtics series! Do you remember the Celtics series? Big, bad, Boston, a team's team. They won with defense and teamwork. They won with chemistry and experience. They won with practice and toughness.

And then Miami's young legs ran roughshod over them in five games.

The media buzz was incredible. Miami fans watched sportswriters jump from team to team every time the Heat advanced in the playoffs. Every series the media said "Sure you beat Boston, but no way you get past Chicago."

Oh, Chicago. Poor poor Derrick Rose. Everyone jumped on their bandwagon in the playoffs. The media used the "standings" argument anytime someone suggested the Heat had a chance. Heat critics would scoff and point to Rose's MVP trophy as if that was the end of the discussion.

It didn't matter. LeBron swarmed him the entire series, leading Rose to admit that he just couldn't overcome LeBron's defense. Almost flat out saying LeBron was better than him.

Do you remember that game five comeback? LeBron and Wade led a furious 4th quarter charge on Dirk-esque one legged three pointers. The people at Pines Ale House almost rioted.

Even the Finals were great. Miami was embracing the villain image. It was good versus evil. I remember watching the Heat alley oop over Dallas throughout the 4th quarter and thinking to myself this could be a sweep.

Granted that was premature. Things mysteriously fell apart. The killer that LeBron had been the past few rounds all but disappeared. It became harder and harder for even a staunch LeBron defender like myself to argue that he wasn't shrinking in the Finals. Miami fans pinned their hopes on knee jerk lineup changes from Erik Spoelstra and hoping that Eddie House could go 30/30 from beyond the arc.

We still don't know what happened. My secondhand sources suggest that the locker room was toxic and maybe LeBron quit on the team. I could see that. The way Wade was going around sticking his chest out talking about how he had "been there before" after game three. Spite isn't an unreasonable reaction.

Man. I miss Wade-LeBron talk. Even after it saturated the media for six months.

I say all of that to point out how great last season was.

Last NBA season contained one of the biggest fan disappointments of my life, (second only to Tebow's last SEC title game versus Alabama) and I still remember it fondly. Imagine what the rest of America thinks.

This season could have been the most popular NBA season in years. It would have featured a retooled, experienced, bitter Miami Heat team out for vengeance and a more experienced Chicago Bulls team with a better Derrick Rose.

We would all be asking questions like: Do the Celtics and Lakers have another year of excellence in them? Can the Thunder make the leap to get to the NBA Finals? Are the Spurs still good enough to make the playoffs? How much money can Mark Cuban actually spend on former all stars? And how many white players can the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers start while still trying to compete in the NBA?

We might never know these answers.

This season was crucial. It would have been our season.

The Heat would have come out angry, avoided the early season adjustment period they went through last year, and been the consistent winner that we saw in December.

Call me crazy, the Heat would have challenged the 72 wins record.

One year of familiarity and almost reaching the championship combined with improvements in LeBron's game, with the possible addition of a center, full seasons from a healthy Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem and the emergence of Mario Chalmers as a professional basketball player would have made this the greatest Heat team ever. With apologies to Earl Barron.

Now, the window on the Heat's dynasty looks like it is closing quickly. Yes, they all signed 6 year contracts but they have 3 year opt outs. Which means we are one bad Kobe-Shaq diva fight from Pat Riley having to blow up the team at the end of this year.

That scares me.

That, and Wade is only getting older and I don't know if he has been developing his outside shot like he should, but regardless he will have to change as a player. His legs don't have that many years left. The lockout has given the players so much time that Wade and LeBron are courting Eddy Curry thinking that he could be an important player on a championship team next season. Eddy Curry!

This was supposed to be the year where the Big 3 were all in their primes, at the peaks of their career, ready to break records and obliterate the league. LeBron was going to win his first ring, the coronation of the King, and Bosh was going to be the first NBA champion from the Paleozoic era. It was going to be great.

Now, David Stern has taken this from me.

My Thoughts on Suck for Luck

Who is Andrew Luck?

Oh, Andrew Luck.

There hasn't been this much hype about an off season move since the Summer of LeBron. Which worked out pretty well for Miami.

If you have somehow miraculously only watched actual pro football games and not been sucked in to the sports business/free agency/draft hype machine that is ESPN, God bless you. But you might not know who Andrew Luck is.

Let me break it down for you. Andrew Luck is supposedly the best quarterback prospect the NFL has seen since Peyton Manning. The guy is legit. He's been a Heisman contender the past few years, he has an absolutely insane completion percentage of over 70% the past two seasons, and he has a fantastic patchy neck beard.

Mel Kiper Jr. has been foaming at the mouth over this kid since he was a Freshman.

Andrew Luck is a stud. Nearly every team in the NFL wants him at quarterback. He can single handily lead a team back to relevance and he could possibly be the cornerstone of an NFL dynasty.

Will He Be Any Good in the NFL?

I dunno.

Everybody says he will. I've been on the Luck bandwagon since watching a Stanford game late in his Freshman season. He has the most important tool that I look for in a quarterback: accuracy.

I mentioned Luck's completion percentage earlier, the dude can put the ball on a dime. The reason that I value accuracy over any other trait in a QB is because it makes a player a less risky pick. Very few accurate QBs turn into less than serviceable players.

If you take a "rocket arm" "gunslinger" in the draft, who's biggest plus is his throwing power, he might develop into the next Brett Favre, or the next Jamarcus Russell.

Give me accuracy any day over arm strength. An accurate quarterback's ceiling is Drew Brees and his floor is Chad Pennington. You can win in the playoffs with either guy.

I think Luck will be a good to great NFL quarterback and I am not alone on this opinion. However, this week was the first time that I saw some analysts on ESPN criticizing Luck. What were they criticizing? Arm strength. I'm no pro scout but the guy looks like he can make all the throws necessary at the NFL level. As Jerry Jones famously quoted, at this point I think they are just "circumcising mosquitoes."

Ultimately its a crap shoot and we don't know how he will turn out, but Luck is as close to a sure thing as we have seen in a decade.



Where Will Luck End Up?

I think there are two distinct groups for Andrew Luck. Ideal fits, and close fits. I ran through the NFL teams and think 14 of the 32 teams would take Andrew Luck over their starting QB but some would have to think about it more than others. Let's get to the real possibilities.

Ideal Fits:

1. Miami Dolphins



Yes, I'm biased and I want Andrew Luck. However, the truth of the matter is that Miami is the most sensible place for Luck to land, and one of the two teams with the best shot to get the first pick. Getting the first pick is huge for the Dolphins, we don't want to end up with a top 5 pick and have to trade up for Luck. That puts our assets up against other teams' assets and there is no guarantee we would have the firepower to make a deal. If we did make a deal we would have to give up multiple 1st round picks and some Pro Bowl talent. The difference between the first pick and the second pick for the Dolphins is Andrew Luck and a first round receiver next year, or Andrew Luck, no 1st round picks for 3 years, and Cameron Wake or Vontae Davis would probably be gone.

But I digress, Miami is a perfect fit because Henne's contract is expiring and he probably doesn't want to come back to Miami due to the 10 years playoff-less frustration we have laid on his shoulders and none of the other quarterbacks on the team will be heavy on the books next year.

We are 0-7 and an easy win doesn't look like its coming down the line. Don't listen to those snobby players in the locker room, real Dolphins fans are cheering for losses. Big picture fans want to fix the franchise and Luck is our best shot.

And for those fans that don't believe in Luck and listen to the critics talk about his arm strength and wonder if he can make the throws, what else do you want us to do? Who else do we draft? Luck might not be everything he is projected to be, but we have to take a shot on a QB sometime. The change in CBA rules means that rookies sign much more feasible contracts. He wouldn't be as big of a risk as Sam Bradford was. We need to dare to be more than mediocre Miami. We need to take a QB in the first round.

Do you know who was the last quarterback we picked in the first round? Dan Marino.

That worked out pretty well for us.


2. Cleveland Browns



Cleveland was a trendy playoff pick before the season but they have struggled out of the gate. Their much talked about new West Coast offense has not worked with Colt McCoy and company.

They may be in a position to get a high pick but more importantly they look like a prime landing spot for Luck. Their starting quarterback of Colt McCoy looks more like a career back up than a starter at this point. (Another guy with a high floor because of good accuracy.) Plus, he doesn't have a big contract because he wasn't a first round pick.

On a side note, I'm sorry Longhorn fans. It looks like Colt is on the verge of being forgotten. He never won a national championship and he will probably lose his starting job soon. At least he can treasure his Heisman trophy. Oh, wait.


3. Washington Redskins



Look Redskins fans, this isn't going to last. Washington looked competitive at the beginning of the year and is still sniffing first place in the NFC East. Don't let them break your hearts.

Ever since turning from Rex Grossman, who has the confidence of a Pro Bowl QB, to John Beck, the Redskins have been floundering in the standings. Take my advice Redskins fans, the Dolphins drafted John Beck. I've been where you are now. I know how this will end.

You will make a late charge for the number 1 pick.

Close Fits:

4. Seattle Seahawks



Their starting quarterbacks are Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Pete Carroll benches one, sees whats on the field, dies a little inside, and puts in the other quarterback. He is shampooing his quarterback situation! Its just rinse and repeat.

You can only watch so many pick sixes go the opposite direction before you start looking at college QBs.

There is a chance that Pete Carroll drapes himself in the Cardinal and Gold and targets Matt Barkley in the draft. But Carroll's job will probably be on the line and nobody wants to bet their career on a kid that reminds me at all of Matt Leinart.


5. Denver Broncos



Timmy! The forecast hasn't looked good for Tebow since his biggest supporter, Josh McDaniels got fired. Say what you want but I didn't think Elway or Fox were big Tebow fans since they've arrived in Denver. I think the Holy Spirit has to lead Tebow's Broncos to the playoffs for him to keep his starting job next year.

Broncos are a dark horse candidate for Andrew Luck. (See what I did there? Broncos... dark horse... let's move on.)

Wild Card:

Indianapolis Colts



The Colts have been the only team that looks worse than the Dolphins this year. But it all depends on Peyton Manning. If Peyton can recover from neck surgery and return to form next year they could very well be a playoff contender again and their draft pick might be better used on another position.

But if Peyton can't come back, then the Colts are the luckiest franchise of the past two decades. (See? Another pun!) This would be their first losing season since Peyton's rookie year and it is the only draft since Peyton's with a sure fire quarterback prospect. If Peyton doesn't come back and the Colts end up with the first pick they will take Luck and be a contender again for the next 15 years.

It's just not fair.

Word of Warning:

Whoever drafts Andrew Luck, don't set your expectations too high. He probably won't win the Superbowl in his rookie year. He probably won't even be that good. Sure, he's the best prospect since Manning but look at what Peyton Manning did in his rookie year. He threw 28 picks that year. That's a rookie record of failure. That's not good.

Miami Sports Hierarchy

So you’ve just moved to Miami. You’re basking in the sunshine, Cuban food, and frightening road rage. You’re also a sports fan and want to immediately insert yourself into the local sports culture. Luckily, I’m here for you.

Why did I write this? Because I am a recent Miami transplant in the DFW and wish someone would make me a road map of this sports town. Also, its my blog and I can write whatever I want.

1. Miami Dolphins

Main Reason: Dan Marino

First of all, you need to know that this is a football town. People in Miami love football as much as they love Gloria Estefan (which is a lot, she’s practically the Oprah of Miami), and the most important football team in town is the Miami Dolphins. Dolfans are born, not converted. Nobody watches our Parcells bred three yards and a cloud of dust offense and decides to give their allegiance to this field goal kicking team. No, the Dolphins are really the only sports team in South Florida with tradition. Parents pass on the Dolphins to their children, and those children to their children.

The most recent time the Dolphins ever inspired neutral football enthusiasts to hitch their hopes and dreams to the aqua and orange was the Dan Marino era. Oh, you’ve never heard of Dan Marino? Then you’re not a football fan, you probably shouldn’t be reading this site, and probably shouldn’t bring that fact up around town. Get this straight, Dan Marino IS Miami. Rick Ross even said it himself.

When Dan Marino was in his prime, we were a force to be reckoned with. Not only did we win, but we won beautifully. Marino would throw precise bombs with his half second release. Marino struck fear into the hearts of opposing teams and fans. The points were guaranteed.

No, we never won a Superbowl with Marino and that’s a sore subject around here, but ask any South Floridian who the greatest quarterback of all time was and the answer is simple.

Close Second Reason: 1972

It won’t be long before you hear Chris Berman talk about the 1972 team popping bottles after the last undefeated goes down. The 1972 Dolphins went 16-0 through the regular season and the playoffs, becoming the only NFL team to complete a perfect season. Sure, the Patriots won 18 in a row a couple years ago, but they couldn’t finish. Thank God for David Tyree’s helmet.

You’re new around here, so do yourself a favor and go look up the 72 Dolphins on Wikipedia. Or if you’re just too lazy to do that, if you ever find yourself in a conversation with a Miami native about the team just say, “Shula, Griese, Csonka. Those were the days.” And stare wistfully into the distance. Your counterpart will most likely start to tear up and shake his head in silence.

2. Miami Heat

Main Reason: The Big 3

“What? I thought you said Miami was a football town.” It is. Just shut up a second and let me explain. No matter how much a civic area is committed to the grid iron, LeBron James changes things.

You have to give it to Mickey Arison and Pat Riley, they are changing the sports culture in Miami. The shot in the arm of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh made Miami feel like a basketball town last year. It was the first time in my lifetime I remember people casually talking about Heat regular season games. Even when we had Shaq that wasn’t the case.

Miami loves flash and star power. Bring us possibly the greatest basketball team ever assembled and we will pack the stadium every game. . . halfway through the second quarter.

Close Second Reason: Alonzo Mourning

We love this tall black man with one kidney. And Zo loves Miami. Google Zo’s Summer Groove. If it wasn’t for frickin’ Michael Jordan, the Miami Heat would have banners up in the rafters celebrating the Mourning-Hardaway teams. Why does MJ always have to ruin everything?

3. College Football

Main Reason: Miami, UF, FSU

These three teams won a combined 10 national championships in the past three decades and should have had more. Each program taking its turn atop the college football universe. Its not a surprise. South Floridians think that we have the best football in the world. You look at any D-1 team and will find some South Florida products there. Its something in the water, you can’t find this kind of speed anywhere else. If you don’t believe me, go to a Carol City-Miami Northwestern game and tell me you’re not impressed. (Just remember to lock your doors, these high schools produced “Thug U.”) Needless to say, the top cut of these future pros normally grow up rooting for one of these three schools and are easily swayed by their recruiters to attend.

Close Second Reason: USF, UCF, FIU, FAU

This is the second tier of Florida football. But these programs are up and coming and feisty. They also deal with a severe inferiority complex of not being in the big three in the state. Thus every year one of them will start 5-0 and declare that they have moved into the big three in place of _____ (whichever of the top schools lost a game) but they normally fade away late in the year and dominate some crappy bowl game.

6. Florida Marlins

Main Reason: Two World Series wins

Soon to be the Miami Marlins. As you can see, there is a precipitous drop from college football to baseball in this town. Don’t believe me? Look at the stands in Sun Life Stadium. One reporter claimed to have counted every fan in the stadium for a game this year. The number reported: Over 10,000. The number of fans he counted: 300.

Sure, we’ve won two championships in the past 15 years but we’ve only made the playoffs twice in that same span. Most Marlins seasons consist of us slashing payroll and trading away any players the fans get attached to. Every once in a while we hit the jackpot on prospects and they gel together into a championship team, but those instances are rare. Of course Cubs fans would probably kill for the odds we’ve had.

There is hope. The long held myth of the Marlins has been that since they’ve had to play in the Dolphins’ stadium and couldn’t reap any of the revenue from stadium purchases the team has had to keep the payroll low. Somehow the Marlins convinced the city of Miami to build them a new 37,000 seat stadium on the old Orange Bowl site to house their 300 fans. But they’ve promised to increase payroll and Cubans will always love baseball.

The best part of a Marlins championship? Pots and pans parades down Calle Ocho.

Close Second Reason: Aliases

10. Florida Panthers

Main Reason: Year of the Rat

If you ask somebody around town about the Panthers, you will probably get a response like, “Wait, they play hockey outside of Canada?” And for good reason. We went to the Stanley cup one year in the ‘90s and lost. I was too young and the memory is foggy. All I remember is people throwing rats onto the ice and John Vanbiesbrouck. That’s about it for proud Panthers moments.

However, there is also hope with the Panthers. After 10 years of mediocrity, missing the playoffs, and generally killing the fan base, the Panthers finally bottomed out and are rebuilding this year. They’ve put together a young and somewhat talented team in Sunrise and might actually make the playoffs. We see red.

Close Second: Randy Moller